The Buffalo Sabres have been the worst team over the last three years in generating shot quality (xGF/60) at 5 on 5. This season things could be different in that regard. With the additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal the Sabres have one of the best groups at forward they’ve had in years.

The question we’ll tackle today is how much better will they be with offensive shot quality? Will they improve enough to be in the top-15 of the league at 5 on 5?

Anthony will tell you why they will be a top-15 shot quality team at 5 on 5 and I’ll be the one telling you why they can’t make that big of a jump.

Anthony | Top 15

While you try to come down from the shock of me picking the optimistic point of view, let’s first examine what it would take for the Sabres to land in the top-15 in xGF/60. Last season, Buffalo was tied with the Winnipeg Jets for the second-lowest xGF/60 rate in the league at 1.99. Obviously, a lot of improvement needs to take place for them to overtake virtually half of the entire league.

In 2019-20, the Nashville Predators registered an xGF/60 rate of 2.33, which ranked 15th in the NHL. If we use that metric as a base, it would mean that the Sabres need to improve by .34 xGF/60 in order to get close to the middle. That’s a big ask, but with the additions Kevyn Adams made at forward, it doesn’t seem insurmountable.

There are two major factors here that work in the Sabres’ favor. The first is the arrival of both Taylor Hall and Eric Staal in the de facto top-six. In what was largely considered a “down year” for Hall, he still ranked 54th among NHL forwards (who played at least 600 minutes, of which there were exactly 300) with an xGF/60 rate of 2.62.

Since 2017-18, Hall ranks 25th among all forwards (again, in the top-300 in terms of minutes played) with a three-year xGF/60 rate of 2.71. Staal has also fared quite nicely under the same criteria, ranking 86th at a rate of 2.49. Those marks place them in the 91st and 71st percentile, respectively. 

These additions are obviously significant. While the Sabres do not currently possess a lot of offensive fire power in the bottom-six, a 56-game season may allow Ralph Krueger to lean more heavily on his top scoring lines. This could potentially facilitate a higher proportion of ice-time than they would normally receive in a full 82-game season. The extent to which Kreuger will take advantage of this remains to be seen, but theoretically, it’s an advantage for a top-heavy squad like Buffalo.

Another tertiary condition to consider here is how the loss of a player like Johan Larsson might impact the Sabres’ tactical approach up front. Unless the coaching staff is under the false impression that Curtis Lazar can seamlessly replace him on the “LOG” line, Buffalo may not be able to afford the same defensively conservative approach that they took last season. For that reason, we could see a shift in approach where the Sabres become a more offensively aggressive team than they were in 2019-20.

Aside from the tangible scoring reinforcements added to the top-six, a lot of this is theoretical in principle. It would lend itself to reason that Adams targeted players like Hall and Staal for the top-six with the understanding that Kreuger could open things up a bit more with more talent. To operate otherwise would honestly seem like a waste of offensive talent. 

If we were having this conversation about the overall xG rate, I would have a tougher time making an argument for the Sabres in the top-15. There a so few strong defensive assets on the roster (especially with Larsson’s exit via free agency), particularly up front. That reality might force their proverbial hand to become more offensively inclined. 

I personally feel that will be the case. An altered approach paired with discernibly improved offensive depth (and of course, a shortened schedule) should be enough to push the Sabres past the middle of the league in terms of xGF/60 this season, even in the hellishly realigned Atlantic Division.

Chad | Not Top 15

Let me start by saying I think that the Sabres will see an improvement in shot quality at 5 on 5. I think they’re just too good at forward to be a bottom-three team in this area.

Having said that, I don’t think the roster as currently constructed will be able to jump into the top 15. There are a few reasons, but there are two for me that stand out above the rest.

The first reason is that I’m skeptical of Ralph Krueger properly putting this lineup together. There’s a real opportunity to build this team to be three lines deep. Based on Krueger’s unwillingness to adjust his top line last season, I feel as though he’s going to load the top six of his lineup.

Sam Reinhart will play on the top line with Hall and Jack Eichel. Then on the second line Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, and Staal will be a trio. That leaves Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Cody Eakin, Curtis Lazar, Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons, and Tobias Reider to fill out the bottom six of the lineup in some combination.

That type of line combination leaves the bottom six vulnerable to being heavily outplayed by the opponent when they’re on the ice. Therefore, while the top six may generate more quality offense, the bottom six will drag the team number down.

The other reason is because of two players on the blue line. Those two are Rasmus Ristolainen and Brandon Montour. If Krueger plans to play these two a lot at 5 on 5 they’re going to negatively impact shot quality. I have no reason to believe that Ristolainen won’t play the most minutes again among the defensemen. He did it last season under Krueger, therefore, I’m going to believe it’ll be that away again until I see otherwise.

Take a look at Micah McCurdy’s “environment distiller” chart below to see just how bad Ristolainen and Montour impacted the team offensively when they were on the ice.

Now, let’s look at how the shot quality looked last season with neither of them on the ice.

The offense still wasn’t great, but it was still considerably better when those two were on the ice.

So, as I said when I started, they will generate better shot quality overall at 5 on 5, but it won’t be in the top 15 of the league. They’d need to see some changes in Krueger’s deployment tendencies to have a chance at making this big of a leap.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, and Charting Hockey

Photo Credit: Nicholas T. LoVerde/Getty Images