Welcome to faceoff week on the site. This is the first of three topics Anthony and I will be tackling in our Pathway to the Regular Season series over the next four weeks.

Today, the topic will be Jeff Skinner and his goal scoring. After signing an eight-year contract with $72 million two years ago, he had a down year in production last season. His overall on-ice impact was that much worse than his 2018-19 season, but the goals didn’t come.

Going into this season the Buffalo Sabres are going to need him to find that scoring touch again if they want to entertain any idea of competing for a playoff spot. Skinner’s career average is 28 goals per 82 games. When you break that out over 56 games, the reported game count for this season, that average equates to 19 goals.

As such, we set the over/under for this debate at 18.5 total goals next season out of Skinner. Anthony will be taking the side over under and I’ll be making the case for the over.

Over | Chad

I was one of the people that went to battle for Skinner last season. I know the production wasn’t there, but his on-ice impacts were not that much different than what he put up during the 2018-19 season. You’ll see below in Micah McCurdy’s impact chart that while his offense was down last season, he still was an excellent offensive impact player.

One reason I’m not that concerned about Skinner is he still had success in what made him the player he is. His 5 on 5 scoring was still there. His 1.06 goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 was still the fifth-highest of his career. The Canadian-born winger ranked 47th in 5 on 5 goals per 60 minutes among forwards to play at least 300 minutes last season. Skinner also continued to get quality opportunities. He ranked 28th in individual shot quality per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey.

So, let’s get out our calculators and do some math. I’ll show you exactly how Skinner reaches at least 19 goals next season.

Skinner’s time on ice per games played was the fourth-lowest of his career last season at 13:28, according to Natural Stat Trick. I expect that number to get back up around 14 minutes next season while playing with a higher quality of teammate at 5 on 5.

Over the last four years, he has averaged 1.19 goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5. If I go a little below that number at 1.15 goals per 60 minutes let’s see how the math works out.

If he plays all 56 games at 14 minutes per game (on average) at 5 on 5 that works out to 784 minutes. Now, divide those 784 minutes by 60 and multiply it by our 1.15 goals per 60 minutes. The result (with some rounding) is 15 goals in 56 games at 5 on 5. For what it’s worth, that would equate to 22 goals over 82 games.

Last season, Skinner had zero power play goals which is something that hasn’t happened in his entire career. He’ll likely get time on the second power play with improved offensive talent. His career average six power play goals per 82 games. At 56 games, it works out to four goals.

Combine those 15 5 on 5 goals with the four goals with the man advantage and we’re at 19 goals in 56 games. Over at 82 games, that would be a 28-goal pace for Skinner.

This isn’t foolproof math by any means. I’m making some estimates to project out possibilities, but we can get Skinner that over 18.5 total. We should expect him to get back to scoring at a higher rate, more ice time, higher quality of teammate, and some more luck. All of that, in my opinion, will put Skinner over 18.5 goals next season.

Under | Anthony

To say that Jeff Skinner’s 2019-20 season left something to be desired would be an understatement. With 14 goals in 59 games, he set a new career-low after notching 40 tallies the year prior. Though it would be a surprise if his scoring numbers didn’t improve in 2021, projecting 20 goals in just 56 games seems ambitious. 

Despite the fact that he’s coming off the worst season of his career, a 29-goal pace over 82 games doesn’t seem like a stretch, on paper. Throughout his 10-year career, he’s either met or surpassed that clip four times. Still, there are circumstances in place that don’t exactly exist in his favor

First and foremost, Ralph Krueger seemed to have no interest in trying to reignite Skinner’s goal-scoring prowess in 2019-20. After finding a great deal of success while riding shotgun with Jack Eichel before Krueger’s arrival, the first-year head coach decided to separate the two. That fact in and of itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A lot of fans wanted to see the Sabres forward talent better distributed. 

This problem is that Victor Olofsson only contributed five total even-strength tallies on Eichel’s left side, while Skinner simultaneously struggled to produce on the second line. It’s odd that Krueger never made a change there to see if Skinner could re-discover his scoring touch. Instead, he chose to leave Skinner primarily alongside players like Marcus Johansson and Conor Sheary (an obvious downgrade from Eichel and Sam Reinhart).

Historically, Skinner does his best work alongside either elite-playmaking centers or very strong two-way assets. Now that Taylor Hall is in the fold, Skinner’s odds of re-establishing his role on the team’s top line seem rather slim. There is a good chance he remains on the second line, which will be pivoted by veteran acquisition and Skinner’s former teammate with the Carolina Hurricanes, Eric Staal.

While deployed together from 2013-2015, the two posted very poor metrics. In just over 565 minutes, they carried an xG rate of 44.92-percent. Obviously, those minutes were fractured, and the data is more than five years old. Still, it might be a bit presumptuous to believe that the two of them will find immediate chemistry in Buffalo. 

The second problem with a 20-goal projection is the fact that Skinner probably isn’t going to play on the top power-play unit this season. Despite seeing no goal-scoring success on the man-advantage in 2019-20 (literally none), 20.54-percent of his career tallies have come at 5-on-4. During his first season in Buffalo, eight of his 40 goals were scored on the power-play.

 

For argument’s sake, let’s assume that Staal falls somewhere between Eichel and Johansson in terms of skill level (arbitrary, I know, but bear with me). In 2018-19, Skinner held an xGF rate of 28.65 (through 82 games) in all situations. Last season away from Eichel, that same mark dropped down to 22.9 (extrapolated for a full season). 

If we were to take the average, it would put us at about 25.78 over a full season (17.6 over 56 games). That alone would put him short of our over/under mark. Now add the fact that his power-play minutes will almost certainly see a reduction, and it seems like an uphill climb. 

Is it possible that Skinner could hit the 20-goal mark in 56 games? Absolutely. If his career has shown us anything, it’s that his production is often unpredictable (at times, wildly so).

For me, this all boils down to the head coach. Krueger’s refusal to put a $9 million AAV asset in a position to succeed last season was a major concern. Whether he isn’t a fan of Skinner’s playing style, or if he was trying to force production in a suboptimal situation is anyone’s guess. Regardless, there are a lot of factors weighing against the 28-year-old in terms of taking a massive goal-scoring leap from a year ago. I think he’ll land closer to 16-17 goals in 2021, but as I said, his raw production is historically unpredictable and he could very well prove me wrong (in either direction).

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, and Natural Stat Trick