It has been a while since we teamed up for one of these Expected Buffalo faceoff collaborations. We see the game similarly, so it’s difficult to find disagreements to take to the faceoff circle.

We landed on a topic, not so much a disagreement, to take different sides on. The topic of choice: will the Buffalo Sabres make the playoffs next season?

As opposed to the last few years, a legitimate argument could be made about the Sabres making it into the playoffs. Anthony will take the side of making an argument why they won’t make the playoffs and I (Chad) will take the other side.

For the record, neither of us are necessarily firmly set on either side of the fence looking ahead to the season. We’re taking sides to generate a discussion.

Let’s get to the action.

No Playoffs | Anthony

One thing is for certain – on paper, the Buffalo Sabres are a markedly improved club from last season. The additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal in particular, should at the very least make them more entertaining to watch. That being said, this club still looks like a group that will end up on the outside of the NHL playoff fringe. 

There are two key (and to this point, unconfirmed) components that will impact where the Sabres land in the 2020-21 standings. First and foremost, it should be stated that a shortened schedule would theoretically benefit a team like Buffalo. A significant majority of their forward talent exists in the offensive top-six, and a shortened campaign would allow Ralph Krueger to lean on them with a reduced “burnout” risk. 

That’s obviously good news, and if the Atlantic Division were to remain as is, I’d like their chances a whole lot more. Unfortunately, it looks like the division alignments will be temporarily altered in 2020-21, and according to the rumored format, the Sabres climb to a playoff-birth is about to get steeper. 

In case you haven’t seen it yet, the “Eastern Division” is rumored to consist of the Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, and of course, the Sabres. Of that group, Buffalo is probably only decidedly better than New Jersey (arguments can be made for either New York teams as well). 

Without the Canadian clubs that typically occupy spots in the division, the Sabres’ anticipated strength of opponent has almost certainly increased. JFresh Hockey and Charting Hockey have both placed their points projections based on this rumored alignment. Neither one saw the Sabres as a threat in that group. 

(Below Projection from CH. Please note the teams are not organized by anticipated point totals)

Let me make something clear – I don’t see the division falling this way. For starters, I’d be stunned if the Devils finish in the top-five, let alone the top-three. Also, I’d be surprised if the Islanders finished dead-last. Unfortunately, I also feel that 64 points in 56 games (93 points extrapolated over an 82-game season) is a bit too generous for Buffalo. 

JFresh Hockey is much less optimistic, projecting just 81-points over an 82-game slate. To me, that projection seems overly modest. It basically implies that the Sabres will finish with the same amount of points they were on pace to finish with last season. Even in such a tough division, that outcome seems pessimistic, even for my taste.

My own personal projection of 86-88 points (over 82 games) falls somewhere in the middle. For argument’s sake, even if we assume CH’s generous projection is correct, it still doesn’t look like it would be enough to compete with the other talented clubs in the division (as illustrated above). 

The beauty of a shortened schedule is a lack of predictability. Teams that start hot will benefit more from a reduced slate of games. It is also unknown to what extent the playoff field will be expanded and/or re-formatted. Still, the Sabres would need a whole lot of things to go right for them to stand out in what looks to be the toughest modified division in the NHL. It’s not insurmountable, but it does seem rather unlikely.

Playoff Bound | Chad

As Jim Mora once said: “playoffs…you kiddin’ me…playoffs?!”

Hockey is a weird sport where anything can happen in a given season and a surprising team makes the postseason almost every year. Carrying the longest playoff drought in the league of nine years, the Sabres are due.

To be honest, the roster that Kevyn Adams has put together looks to be their best chance at breaking the drought in a few years. They have some high-end talent on the roster that goes beyond Jack Eichel with the addition of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. Add that to Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, Sam Reinhart, and Rasmus Dahlin they have a decent lineup on paper. It’s by no means perfect, but there is some potential if a few things go their way.

Let’s start with the schedule. As of now, it sounds as though the NHL is planning on a 52 or 56-game season that would start in mid-January. That may be wishful thinking at this point by the league, but let’s go with that as the plan for now for the sake of the argument.

How this works in the Sabres’ favor is that they’ve been a club that starts fast the last two years. A shortened season allows less time for them to fall apart. At the 56-game mark in the 2018-19 season they were only four points out of the playoffs and last year they were eight points out, according to hockey-reference. Still not in a playoff spot, but at least in the conversation.

We’ll see how they decide to put it together with realigned divisions and an effort to reduce travel.

Bringing in Hall is a move that is going to make a big impact for this team. A long term commitment after a down year wouldn’t have been a good idea, but a one year deal is perfect for both sides. According to Evolving Hockey, Hall is ranked 20th among all forwards in total wins above replacement (WAR) over the last four years. If he can get back to the player he was, they’ll have two of the best forwards in the sport on their roster. They could also have one of the best 5 on 5 scorers in the game in Jeff Skinner if can return to form.

Hall’s addition, as well as Staal’s, gives them the ability to spread the scoring out throughout their roster. The bottom six of the lineup could still use some work, but if Ralph Krueger has the ability to ice a team that can go three lines deep.

Another area of the game that could see some significant improvement is if Rasmus Dahlin takes over for Rasmus Ristolainen as the defenseman playing the most minutes. It’ll be an overall improvement to reduce the minutes of Ristolainen in of itself. If Dahlin takes that next step in his game most of us expect him to do then they’ll see some growth in on-ice results with a much better player getting those minutes.

The path to the playoffs isn’t an easy one for the Sabres. They’ll need a few things to go their way, the coach to deploy players properly, and some luck. The good news is they’ll need a lot less luck than they would have needed in the past if the first two things I mentioned work in their favor.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Charting Hockey

Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images