Sadly, we’re in the final week of the Buffalo Sabres season. We’re all having fun watching a team that is showing real promise for the first time in a decade.

The good news is the end of the season means we immediately shift into offseason mode. We’re going to get an early start today by discussing the goaltending position. That’ll likely be the hot topic of the offseason. Today’s faceoff, however, will be about a particular goalie. None other than Marc-Andre Fleury.

The question is whether the Sabres should be interested in signing Fleury as an unrestricted free agent in the summer. This discussion blocks out the scenario of getting a better option. The focus is simply yes or no on the veteran goaltender. I (Chad) will argue that the Sabres should not explore this option and Anthony will tell you why they should consider it.

Chad – The Objective is to Find a Real Starter

Let me start by saying I have nothing against Fleury. By all accounts, he’s a great teammate and a few years ago I would have been all about this idea. At 37-years-old with a lot of wear on tires, I’m passing on this idea.

If the Sabres are improving their situation in goal in the offseason, the objective is to find a legitimate starting goaltender that can tandem with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. In my eyes, a legitimate starter plays at least 50 games for you and provides above-average numbers in adjusted save percentage.

That’s not something Fleury can do for you anymore at his age. Did you know that Fleury has only appeared in at least 50 games in a season twice since the 2016-17 season? He has played 53 games this year and played in 61 in the 2018-19 season for the Vegas Golden Knights.

His numbers were good during that 18-19 season with the Golden Knights, but that has not been the case this season. The Canadian-born goaltender saved 11.34 goals below expected for Chicago Blackhawks in all situations in Evolving Hockey’s model. In the eight games with the Minnesota Wild, he has been at expected with a -0.31 GSAx rating entering last night.

Since he was acquired, it has been an even split with Cam Talbot. Fleury has appeared in nine games if you count last night and Talbot has appeared in 10. He still fits in this league in a platoon tandem, but not as an every-night starter.

You may be thinking, why not have him split time with Luukkonen next season? Well, if you may recall, I wrote a piece last summer about expectations for a goaltender of Luukkonen’s age. In that research, I found no goalie his age has played more than 47 games in since at least 2017. The average games played is between 30-35 games.

If the Sabres want to bring in an older veteran they should just run it back with Craig Anderson. He’s familiar with the team and would provide similar results. Two of the last three years, including this year, Anderson has a better goals saved above expected rating than Fleury.

Of course, there’s a Vezina season sandwiched in there for MAF. That shouldn’t be ignored, but I’m confident that is an outlier season at this point in his career.

For me it basically comes down to the Sabres needing to find a goaltender that they can rely on in an important season for the growth of this team. They can’t have another year of question marks at the position that could hold them back.

Anthony – Not the Top Option, but an Option

Allow me to begin with a clarification – Marc-Andre Fleury is not my top choice to serve as the Buffalo Sabres’ starting goaltender in 2022-23. I believe that there are superior options who could be conceivably available. That being said, I would not be disappointed to see him don the blue-and-gold in 2022-23.

First, let’s dispel the age narrative. It’s easy to look at Fleury (who will be 38 about a month into next season) and say “well, if you want an older goalie, you might as well re-sign Craig Anderson.” Yes, both goalies are long in the tooth, but that’s where the comparables start and finish. 

Even in what can be considered a “down year” for Fleury, he still beats Anderson in pretty much every identifiable goaltending metric. This includes raw save-percentage, if goalie underlyings aren’t your cup of tea (.909 for Fleury compared to .897 for Anderson).

As I’ve said countless times, goalie performance is one of the most difficult things to project, year-over-year. In that spirit, it’s tough to point to Fleury’s age as the reason for the drop in his raw save-percentage. Instead, I’d direct you to the fact that this figure has varied significantly for him (from a year-by-year standpoint) since 2016-17.

With all of this in mind, let’s switch gears and play the culture game. Even if Fleury’s statistical superiority over Anderson isn’t convincing enough, he’s still a prolific NHL player, even in his late-30’s.

Right or wrong, that matters, especially for a team with a young core that is trying to end the league’s longest playoff drought. Signing a player like Fleury sends a message to the locker room that the front office believes the team can compete as early as next season. 

Even if Kevin Adams doesn’t genuinely feel that way, there is a morale-boost that comes along with bringing on a league icon (unless that player’s name is Taylor Hall). Fleury also has a track record of being an excellent teammate (not to mention three Stanley Cup rings), which shouldn’t be overlooked as the Buffalo vibe train continues to roll into next fall. 

I’ll reiterate the fact that I do feel there are better options to be had. If the Anaheim Ducks aren’t expecting an exorbitant return for John Gibson, he is a demonstrably better option. The same goes for a player like Connor Hellebuyck. Even pending UFA, Braden Holtby would represent an upgrade, though his season-by-season temperament is very similar to Fleury’s. Over the past three seasons, 71 netminders have dressed in at least 30 games. Holtby’s GSAx mark of -21.85 ranks him 57^th.  Fleury’s GSAx of -5.81 puts him 37^th on the list. Not the greatest, but it’s a lot better than the Sabres have experienced.

It all boils down to availability and asset cost. Sure, there are preferable options, but I’d challenge anyone to leave Fleury out of their top-five goaltending possibilities for 2022-23 (within reason). As offseason prognosticators, we tend to overestimate the trade market (for goaltenders, specifically).

Last offseason, four starting caliber goalies were traded in Vitek Vanecek, Alex Nedjelkovic, Adin Hill, and Fleury himself. Not exactly a murderers row of starting options. You could also count Dan Vladar, but he was strictly a backup acquisition (despite being perhaps the best player in the bunch). 

While players like Gibson and Hellebuyck could end up being moved, they’re really the only two players on the perceived trade block who are definitive long-term starting options. Everything else would be a short-term solution (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, given the Sabres’ promising goaltending pipeline).

Simply put, Fleury isn’t my favorite possibility, but I would be perfectly content to see the Sabres acquire a stopgap option of his caliber while they see what they have in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in a rotational starter/1B role.

Data via: Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Jamie Sabau/Getty Images