As more teams make difficult decisions pertaining to their pending restricted free-agents, things could get very interesting for the Buffalo Sabres. If Kevyn Adams is interested in seeking out value adds, one player who fits that description (and will reportedly not receive a qualifying offer) is Arizona Coyotes forward, Vincent Hinostroza.

At 26 years old, Hinostroza is coming off two really strong seasons in Arizona. Early in his career, his impacts were less-than pedestrian, but he has made marked improvements as he’s continued to develop. On a Sabres team that is currently in need of both right-wing depth, and defensively competent forwards in general, he seems like a strong fit.

In 2018-19 he set a career-high, posting 39 points in 72 games. This season, he wasn’t as productive on the scoresheet (22 points in 68 games), but his underlying impacts were still relatively strong.

While his xG rate saw a reduction this season (49.45-percent, down from over 53-percent in each of the two years prior), that mark was still good for fourth-best among forwards on a very mediocre Coyotes squad. Even with that dropoff in mind, he still posted excellent shot-share numbers, continuing an increasingly impressive career development trend.

Another positive thing to note here is that Hinostroza’s low 2019-20 OZS rate of 43.33-percent didn’t directly lead to his xG reduction. It was actually higher than the OZS rate he experienced the year prior, where he posted much better expected-goal numbers, as mentioned above.

As an underrated zone-entry entity, a higher OZS rate would actually take away one of the strongest aspects of his game, so the way Arizona has used him over the past two years has been pretty intelligent. If you look at the 2018-19 heatmap above, you’ll see that the Coyotes had a very good shot-attempt-for rate while he was on the ice, despite frequently having to start in his own end. This again, speaks toward his strength as a transition asset.

If the Sabres fail to acquire a defensively competent third-line center, they’ll need to rely on two-way wingers to an extent. Unfortunately, Buffalo doesn’t possess many of them at the moment, but a Hinostroza acquisition would be a step in the right direction.

Paired with his flashes of offensive ability, he would be a nice replacement for pending UFA, Zemgus Girgensons. On paper, Hinostroza’s results might appear mixed in a defensively tilted role, but his metrics actually indicate more good than bad. He would probably be best optimized alongside a Johan Larsson type, but his return just doesn’t seem to be in the cards right now.

During his best season at the NHL level (2018-19), he spent a majority of his time alongside Brad Richardson (a defensively solid center) and Richard Panik (a very strong offensive contributor). As a trio, they posted an xG rate of 60.64-percent that season in a very defensive role.

The Sabres might have a hard time replicating that dynamic (especially if they cannot find a defensive center to replace Larsson), but that sort of skill-set balance appears to be how the Coyotes got the most out of Hinostroza.

Now, let’s talk contract. According to Evolving Hockey, he is expected to command a three-year deal in the neighborhood of $2.43 million AAV. That seems a little expensive. His current salary is $1.5 million AAV, and after a down statistical year, a million-dollar raise seems lofty. The fact that his current team isn’t willing to qualify him probably won’t tilt matters in his favor either.

If the Sabres can acquire him for something closer to a two-year, $2 million AAV contract, however, they should be all over it. We’re talking about a player who is in the prime of their career, and for a budget team seeking out inexpensive contributors in the bottom-six, he is a perfect fit. If Buffalo isn’t planning to actively pursue a bigger name free-agent like Craig Smith on the wing, this is at least a palatable alternative.

Charts courtesy of Charting Hockey and Hockeyviz

Teammate Data and Advanced Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick