To this point in our free-agent breakdown series, we’ve specifically honed in on individual players currently set to hit the unrestricted market. In researching the players we had on our short-list to profile, I ran into a pair of wingers who were very comparable, both in anticipated contractual demands, and fan perception.

For this reason, we’ll mix things up and perform a head-to-head “showdown” analysis on whether Tyler Toffoli or Mike Hoffman would make more sense for the Buffalo Sabres to pursue on the open market this offseason. On paper, there are certainly base statistical comparables, but their respective underlying numbers tell two very different stories.

Let’s start with Toffoli, a player who Sabres fans have coveted for what seems like half a decade. To the dismay of many in Western New York, he was dealt from the Los Angeles Kings to the Vancouver Canucks at the 2020 NHL trade deadline for the very reasonable cost of a second-round pick, an NHL tweener (Tim Schaller), and a B-level prospect (Tyler Madden).

If you want to talk about analytical consistency at the NHL-level, Toffoli is one of the best examples among wingers across the league. Year after year, he’s posted fantastic offensive metrics. Even when he experienced a down season defensively in 2017-18, his scoring contributions make up the difference (and then some).

This season, his xGAR score of 8.9 was good for 48^th among all NHL forwards. He also ranked first among Los Angeles regulars with an xGF-percentage of 57.30 at even-strength. On top of producing 44 points in 68 games (the second-best per-game rate of his career) between the Kings and Canucks, these metrics bode well for the argument that he is a bonafide top-six forward.

There is an existing narrative which suggests that Toffoli is merely a “complementary player” on the wing. The suggestion is that he isn’t a “line-driving” entity, which may be true to an extent, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t impactful. Part of the perception likely exists because of how much time he has spent flanking bigger names like Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter over the last three years in Los Angeles.

Before being traded, Toffoli spent a good chunk of the 2019-20 campaign on a line with Kopitar and Alex Iafallo. As a trio, they performed very well, leading the team in xGF-rate per-60. When the lines were shuffled and Toffoli was replaced with Dustin Brown however, the Kopitar line struggled as a result.

In a way, Toffoli has been similar to Sam Reinhart in the sense that he’s been underrated as a result of constantly playing alongside a “bigger name” center(s).

If the Sabres were to acquire him, he’d also help out on the man-advantage, which after a hot start, fell off a cliff for Buffalo last season. 56 of his 300 career points have come on the power-play, and at the NHL-level, his presence in that area has lead to an aggregate 9-percent uptick in xGF rate over the league average in that stretch.

Perhaps the most encouraging part of Toffoli’s game is the fact that, at 28-years-old, there haven’t been any indications of his underlying production slowing down. Quite the opposite in fact. If anything, his offensive impacts especially are on the rise. That’s not to say a long-term deal on an aging winger isn’t a risk, but to this point, his game hasn’t shown any discernable red flags.

In the red corner (because why not?), we have Hoffman who, from a base-scoring perspective, has definitely produced more points in nearly the same amount of career games-played (493 for Hoffman, and 525 for Toffoli). As a late bloomer, playing his rookie season as a 25-year-old with the Ottawa Senators, Hoffman is an interesting player to analyze.

A year removed from notching 36 goals for the Florida Panthers, he was on pace to post a similar total once again (29 tallies in 69 games), before the NHL regular-season was suspended as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. While his goal-scoring prowess is certainly attractive to Sabres fans (as it should be), his advanced metrics are significantly less impressive, overall.

Through the course of his career, only once has his offensive shot-production covered for the amount of excess shots-allowed when he’s on the ice. In fact, his offensive shot-attempt totals over the last two seasons have been the worst of his career.

The first question that may come to mind here is how someone with such high goal totals from 2018-2020 could have such poor shooting metrics at five-on-five. The reality is that Hoffman is just very opportunistic, and his teams have benefitted from a perennially noticeable uptick in shooting-percentage while he’s on the ice.

There’s obviously nothing wrong with being an excellent shooter, but it’s a scary thing to bet on when a team is considering signing a player to a long-term deal. In Hoffman’s case, should that trend slow down at all, there really isn’t a redeeming quality in his game to offset it.

Of the 15 Panthers forwards who have played a minimum of 50 games over the last two years, Hoffman has the third-lowest even-strength xGF rate at 46.82-percent. Compounding on that concern was the fact that he also held the third-highest OZS rate among Florida forwards at over 58-percent in 2019-20. Looking at his career trend as a whole, his performance is that of a player who peaked about three years ago and has been on the decline ever since.

At the risk of “piling on” there is one more red flag when it comes to the prospect of signing Hoffman to a long-term deal. It also goes even further to explain his bad even-strength metrics despite very high point totals. Over the last four years, 103 of his 246 total points have come on the man-advantage.

That’s nearly 42-percent. In just looking at even-strength point-production, Toffoli and Hoffman actually have near-identical career point totals (235 and 237, respectively).

Of course, the Sabres could use the help on the power-play, but investing in a player who excels most in a facet of the game that is largely system-based, is another massive risk.

According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projection tool, Toffoli and Hoffman are expected to command seven and five-year deals, respectively. The anticipated AAV rate for each is nearly identical at $6.5 million. The term difference is actually pretty insignificant, considering both deals would expire when both players hit 35 years of age.

In a vacuum, long-term deals for wingers are usually a very risky proposition. In Toffoli’s case, it would perhaps be less dangerous than normal, considering the lack of any discernable decline, and his consistent on-ice impacts. He’s also the younger option so naturally, you’re even more likely to get more “prime years” out of him.

As for Hoffman, a long-term contract for a 30-year-old player who earns a very healthy chunk of his points on the power-play is a much greater gamble. If the Sabres were to seriously consider filling a top-six winger role on the open market this offseason, they would be better suited to focus their efforts on signing Toffoli, and avoid the looming albatross that is Hoffman’s anticipated financial (and term) demand.

RAPM and xGAR Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Linemate xG Chart courtesy of Charting Hockey

xG, OZS and Linemate Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Shot Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz