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Team Breakdown: Blues have some tough decisions ahead

After winning the Stanley Cup last year, the Blues were knocked out of the postseason in the first round at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks. Now, they have some tough decisions to make with their cap situation.

Their team captain Alex Pietrangelo is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason, but they’d like to keep him. To do so, they’ll need to move out some players out. They already began the process by trading goaltender Jake Allen to the Montreal Canadiens last week.

There are a few players on the Blues roster that could be on the move that would fit some needs for the Buffalo Sabres.

Blues Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $6.3 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Vince Dunn and Jacob De La Rose (arbitration-eligible)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Alex Pietrangelo and Troy Brouwer

Projected Needs: Cap space and goaltender

1. Vince Dunn | LD | Age 23 | RFA

Vince Dunn isn’t going to be a casualty of signing Pietrangelo. They may lose him because the Blues decided to trade for and extend Justin Faulk last summer.

The Sabres have a need on the left side of their blue line with the departure of Lawrence Pilut to the KHL. Dunn is the perfect player to target to fill that opening in their lineup. They should consider trading for him if the Blues make him available, but if they don’t, he’s a player that should be an offer sheet candidate.

I know, nobody offer sheets anyone.

Dunn established himself in the league last season as the primary partner for Pietrangelo on the Stanley Cup squad. This year, however, he played with the aforementioned Faulk. He put up another strong season playing with a lower quality of teammate, which should take away some concern that he was lifted by Pietrangelo.

In Micah McCurdy’s model, you see above, it’s not often that you see a defenseman grade out positively in scoring impacts as we see here with Dunn. His model tends to favor forwards at times because they’re more impactful to driving offense. What I’m trying to say is when you see this type of impact you should be impressed with the player.

His microstats in Corey Sznajder’s data back up what we see in Micah’s isolated impacts. In primary shot contributions this season at 5 on 5, he was at a similar level as Pietrangelo.

Dunn would make sense to slot in on the second pair with Henri Jokiharju on the Sabres roster. That would push Jake McCabe down the lineup and into a role that he has had success playing in the past.

2. Tyler Bozak | C | Age 34 | One-year, $5 million

Bozak is another one of those short-term solutions to fill a need at center for the Sabres. This could be a situation where the Sabres take on Bozak’s salary for one year and possibly pick up another asset in the process. Such as a draft pick or mid-level prospect for their troubles.

If nothing else, he would be a respectable player to fill a need at a cheap cost for one year. Bozak showed signs of flattening out to a replacement-level player in Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement model. His production continued to dip, but he made an impact with the Blues this season in their model.

Again, making a short-term investment on a player that can at the very least be a replacement-level player for you on the third line and provide some special teams help is worth looking into if their other plans at center don’t work out.

3. Jaden Schwartz | LW | Age 28 | One-year, $5.3 million

Of the three players mentioned, Schwartz may be the most unlikely player to move. His name is worth brining up though because of their need to shed salary and he only has one year remaining on his contract. If they don’t want to re-sign after next season, this offseason would be the time to move him.

Over the last few years, Schwartz has been up and down. His strong defensive impacts have been a constant, but the offense has been the inconsistent part of his game.

He’d be a nice addition for the Sabres in the top six of their lineup, but things can get dicey on that contract. It may not be the best idea to give up the pieces needed to acquire Schwartz if they don’t have some sort of promise that he’ll remain in Buffalo past this year. Then you get to the question if re-signing him at 29-years-old to a long term contract makes sense.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, and Corey Sznjader
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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