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How The Sabres’ Power-Play Might Look in 2020-21

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Leading up to the 2019-20 season, data-driven hockey analysts agreed that the Buffalo Sabres needed stellar special teams production to realistically compete for a playoff berth. Next season, a similar narrative is likely to take place, albeit to a lesser extent. The Sabres still aren’t talented or deep enough to make a push despite sub-par special teams production, but their anticipated five-on-five skill-level is far less dire than it was a year ago.

As far as the penalty-kill goes, the situation isn’t all that inspiring. The Sabres added a couple of potential positive impact players in that area, but a full system overhaul will be required if they want to see a drastic improvement (ranked 30th in the league last season at 74.59-percent). The power-play, however, is much more interesting, and with the new additions up-front, the Sabres have a lot more firepower and flexibility.

Last season, the Sabres’ success in the standings was strongly correlated with their conversion rate on the man-advantage. Early in the year, the power-play was magnificent, converting at nearly a 31-percent rate over the first 10 games (the best mark in the NHL). After that, they converted at just 15.9-percent over the last 59 games of the season, causing them to fall to 20th-overall.

Unfortunately, opposing penalty-kills were able to neutralize the Sabres’ one-trick-pony attack, and as their power-play percentage fell, so did their record. Let’s now take a look at where the new faces will fit into the attack plan, and how the “new look” first and second power-play units could be constructed in 2020-21.

First Unit – Hall, Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Dahlin

It goes without saying that this has the potential to be one of the most imposing man-advantage units in the league. Every one of these players has a unique and specific skill set, making this combination not only very talented but also well-rounded.

For this group, a 1-3-1 formation might be the best way to approach things. For those who are unaware of what that looks like, below is a visual from Blue Seat Blogs to help illustrate the concept. This approach would likely be very effective in maximizing efficiency.

The below clip is a really nice example of the Sabres utilizing the 1-3-1 formation last season. This approach emphasizes quick cross-ice puck movement. You can see that the forwards near the faceoff dots are in pretty close. Jack Eichel then moves around and finds an opening for a one-timer opportunity.

Now we’ll examine what this technique could look like, personnel-wise in 2020-21. As the only defenseman in the group, Dahlin would man the point. That position is pretty straight-forward. The other “D” spot shown in the graphic would belong to Eichel. As a right-handed shot, he obviously excels on the left side of the formation.

On the far right side, you would have Victor Olofsson in a prime position on his off-hand to use his elite shot (as seen in the above-referenced video), which was on full display, particularly early in the 2019-20 campaign.

The other two forward slots are where it gets a bit more interesting. Last year, the Sabres’ power-play strategy failed to deploy Sam Reinhart where he has historically excelled the most – right in front of the net. Looking at the 1-3-1 as a concept for this group, slotting him down-low makes the most sense.

Finally, Taylor Hall would fit into the position shown at the center of the formation. As a player with elite vision, he’d serve as a “rover” of sorts. Centering him in the 1-3-1 allows him to move around as he sees fit, and distribute the puck from the middle. This obviously doesn’t mean that he’s “centering the unit”, but merely that he would be tasked with covering the most ground so that shooters like Eichel and Olofsson can do what they do best – shoot the puck.

As previously stated, because of the sheer offensive talent here, there are several approaches which the Sabres’ coaching staff can take. In terms of optimizing skill sets and getting the very most out of what looks like an elite unit, the 1-3-1 just seems to check all the boxes.

Second Unit – Skinner, Staal, Thompson, Cozens, Ristolainen

The secondary man-advantage unit is actually more fun to analyze because the player selection and placement aren’t as straight-forward as the first group. A lot of teams (including the 2019-20 Sabres) prefer to deploy two defensemen on the second power-play unit. Personally, I’d like to see Buffalo utilize four forwards in both cases.

If the Sabres plan to use the players listed above, the “Umbrella Formation” might be the best approach. This setup is similar to the 1-3-1 in the sense that one defenseman is set up at the point, however, there are subtle differences that should benefit this unit.

As you can see, the players positioned along the boards are designed to play a little higher up on the faceoff circle. This isn’t really a necessity to make the concept work, but it could help facilitate opportunities for the two assets positioned closer to the goalmouth.

The Sabres didn’t utilize this approach as much as the 1-3-1 last year, but the clip below is a fairly strong example of it. As you can see the forwards along the boards are set further back than in the Olofsson clip. While Jeff Skinner kind of meanders back toward the slot after Reinhart crashes the net (which makes the formation resemble a set-back version of the 1-3-1), the concept remains.

This approach is more about shot volume, whereas the 1-3-1 emphasizes puck movement. Obviously, more skilled entities are better capable of “picking their spots” so to speak, whereas overall volume helps when individual finishing skills aren’t as apparent. It’s why having “garbage pickers” in deep is one of the keys to the approach. 

The “D1” spot illustrated on the referenced BSB diagram would belong to Rasmus Ristolainen. Despite his laundry list of deficiencies at even-strength, he is a historically solid power-play asset, and if he’s going to be in Buffalo, they might as well get some beneficial use out of him. From 2016-2019, he served on the top-unit. and his presence resulted in a very positive xGF increase.

The “D2” position could go to first-year forward, Dylan Cozens. He’s a right-shot, and being positioned further-out could help give him space to create, and move closer to the net if the opportunity presents itself. On the opposite side (F3), Tage Thompson is a natural fit as a righty with an absolute cannon for a shot (very similar to Olofsson’s role on PP1).

Down low, you have Skinner and Eric Staal. Skinner is a natural fit in that position. He’s great at shoveling home rebounds, despite not having a Thompson or Olofsson-caliber shot from the circle. Staal is a little tougher. While he’d no doubt excel in a net-front role, it feels like we’re perhaps limiting him. For that reason, he could conceivably serve in a role similar to Hall’s on PP1, as a “rover” asset who can float as he sees fit.

I’m personally a little torn as to whether or not the umbrella approach is actually better than the 1-3-1 here. It would be worth taking a look at, especially if the 1-3-1 doesn’t reap immediate results, but a strong case could be made for either. This is obviously a good problem to have. There is talent across both groups to argue many different approaches as potentially effective.

Closing Thoughts

As stated in the opening section, the Sabres were guilty of being one-dimensional on the power-play last season. After the “feed Olofsson one-timers” approach stopped working, the coaching staff really didn’t have an answer. On top of that, the PP2 unit was all but useless, rarely presenting a threat to score.

Conceptually, Buffalo has enough talent not only to pose a scoring threat from multiple positions, but they also have the offensive depth to actually ice two complete, well-rounded groups. That is extremely exciting. Though things still look bleak from a penalty-kill perspective, this area of their game should see a marked improvement.

It goes without saying that this area of the game won’t save them on its own, especially since there probably won’t be any significant improvements on the PK, (or between the pipes for that matter). Still, it should be vastly more effective, and a high-octane offense at both even-strength and on the man-advantage will be entertaining to watch if nothing else.

Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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One thought on “How The Sabres’ Power-Play Might Look in 2020-21”

  1. I look at TBL’s PP 1, the gold standard right now, and the main characteristics of success appear to be:
    1. Zone entry with control: they don’t dump the puck in, and they have elite ZE with Kucherov and Point. The supporting players are almost always where they need to be. It always looks planned, never freelanced. Sabres too often look the opposite.
    2. Elite passer (Kucherov) on his off wing (lefty on the right wall) feeding three guys who are also on their off wings (righty in the middle, left wall and point; Point, Stamkos and Hedman, respectively). All three guys are always threats for one-timers. This is probably the best argument for Hall on PP1 rather than spreading the wealth and having him play Eichel’s role, as he did in NJ. The Sabres could have Eichel passing to Hall, Olofsson and Dahlin for one-timers. Skinner doesn’t fit in the middle as well as Hall probably, but in this article, it’s clear Sabres PP2 doesn’t have the passing ability of PP1.
    3. Incredible skill. TBL’s PP1 is basically the same as an All Star PP would be. They’re so good that they make the PP2, probably basically a PP1 for every other team, appear pedestrian by comparison. Sabres PP1 could at least compare to TBL in pure offensive ability, even if it won’t quite reach that level.

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