In terms of single calendar years, 2021 was absolutely the single most drastically changing year in Sabres history. 365 days ago, Taylor Hall was yet to play a game in a Sabres uniform. Same with Eric Staal, who indeed played for the Buffalo Sabres in this calendar year. Jack Eichel had yet to be injured. We were hoping the team would reach the shortened-season equivalent of 90 points hoping the stud teams in the division beat each other up and allowed the Sabres to flirt with a playoff berth. 

Yikes. And since it’s not December 2021 and not March 2021 anymore, thank goodness. If nothing else, we will never have to know what the long-term ramifications would’ve been of Ralph Kruger not only continuing to coach but also the rumored front office position that was always lingering when he was first hired. All it cost was the team’s core, but now the past is the past. 

I think it’s safe to say that the 2021 portion of the schedule this season was alright overall. While the abysmal goaltending stretch last month really made things gloomy for a while, the Sabres are performing ahead of the general expectations for this season and have gotten good early returns on their last handful of trades that make the vibes on the ice mostly alright (off the ice? Hit and miss). 

It’s almost refreshing looking ahead to the start of 2022 because the last three calendar years have been really REALLY trying for the Sabres organization and their fans. As we look ahead today to some New Year’s Resolutions, the primary goal of the organization needs to be to leave the last three calendar years to rot away in the past and serve as a reminder of places we all hope they never fall to again. Sustainable hope feels like a good way to describe what will be needed for the upcoming year and into 2023.

But isn’t hope something you can’t really measure and usually a mirage?

Okay yeah, but look at where the benchmark for hope has dropped since the 10 game win streak team in 2018-19 got this free fall rolling. Currently, hope rides game to game usually based on the result on the scoreboard unless the expected goal numbers are very contradictory of the result. A game’s goal scorers get rewarded online with the spin of them outperforming their expectations and elevating their career trajectory. A string of back-to-back wins is a catalyst for bold dreams of late spring hockey as opposed to being another day in the life of actually good hockey teams. 

It’s certainly not a bad thing for a fan to be hopeful even in the worst of times because at the end of the day, you at least have to find the bright sides in bad seasons, or else being a fan would become a very not-fun and almost existential lifestyle choice. Think of the start to this season and how quickly narratives were being poured out of vats of wet concrete that only were erased before they dried because the goaltending falling off accelerated the drop back to season expectation (Get well soon Craig Anderson). When I call hope sustainable, I want to see this season finish in a place where there are fewer hoops to jump through in June to imagine the Sabres finding themselves in a playoff discussion for 2022-23 with the roster they have in addition to an upgrade here or there. And the start of the 2022-23 to start sustainably strong so that the next year calendar flip comes along with daily standings checks being part of the morning routine and weeknight division games in December and January being something you pace around the house all day for in the lead up because there are actual stakes to the playoff standings. And this list of resolutions is all part of the journey to get there:

Make the Right Point Disappear

For 9 of the 10 seasons of the Sabres playoff drought, the Sabres have been deep into the blue of Micah’s shot rate heat maps for a lack of excess shots in front of the net. For each of the last 6 seasons, the highest volume spot for shot attempts has come at the right point, and the trend is continuing this year

In the previous years that this was happening, it was mostly attributed to Rasmus Ristolainen’s presence on the team. This season, Colin Miller’s presence has continued the tradition. After he is likely traded at the deadline as a pending UFA, it’s a goal of mine as a partial observer with no influence on the roster or the play on the ice for the Sabres to almost eliminate corner point shots from their arsenal. That is the first step to raising their expected goals and slowly approaching shot attempts from closer locations that will hopefully later get them to a big red blob in front of the net. 

Do Literally Anything Different on the Powerplay

32% below average on the power play for expected goals for. Five goals for every 60 powerplay minutes amounts to one goal every 12 minutes, which would, approximately of course because the goal wouldn’t be a full two-minute powerplay, one goal every six powerplay attempts. 

That number needs to get back up towards one goal every 4-5 attempts. For a team that also hasn’t drawn that many penalties this year compared to the rest of the league – 76 attempts through 30 games for a 28th ranked 2.5 attempts per game, that makes each attempt much more sacred with a small margin of error. Looking at the heat map, the Dahlin and Thompson spots on the top PP seem to be the primary focal points by far, while the “home plate” area of the ice is almost non-existent compared to the rest of the league. With Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt being the guys that operate in that area of the ice at 5 on 4 typically, the Sabres are keeping the puck out of some of their best shooters’ possession and neutralizing them in a setup role. While Thompson and Olofsson’s shots certainly are strong enough that their one-timers shouldn’t be eliminated from the powerplay, the front of the net needs to be respected as a shooting spot and not just a passing and rebound area of the ice. 

The last time that the Sabres had a great powerplay, they were primarily faceoff-circles-to-net-heavy for the most common locations of their shots in 2016-17. Make that a goal to have an attempt map that looks more like this.

As Few “Let’s See How This Plays Out” Players at the Start of Next Season as Possible

Maybe this is a more personal gripe than anything else but the idea of having to start 2022-23 and have key players on next year’s roster having to “slowly be brought into the systems” and “get their feet wet learning the NHL game” is agonizing. Use this season as the learning curve season. As above expectations as they’ve performed so far, it’s still not moving the needle any closer to the second wild-card spot in the East. 

Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn, and JJ Peterka need an NHL game sample this season, whether they play on the same line on the big club or not. Keep UPL in between the pipes primarily for the rest of the season. Give Mattias Samuelsson, Casey Fitzgerald, and Oskari Laaksonen games on the big club as well for an extended period so that when camp comes back around next year, they have an NHL learning period to use when they will likely have the inside lane to roster spots with the big club – or if it doesn’t go well at least they have the experience to learn from and the decision point for moving on from them would occur more quickly. Plus this would hopefully allow Owen Power to get some games in Rochester if not Buffalo without the line is too long for him to get into games.

Move On Where It’s Time To Move On

This is more of a long-term goal because of the limitations of the trade deadline in the recent NHL track record, but if a guy hasn’t carved themselves a place in the future core and they don’t have to be back next year, don’t bring them back. Of their NHL defensemen not named Johnny Boychuk, four of them are pending UFAs. While they need to be aware of the CAP floor, if there are opportunities to move Colin Miller, Will Butcher, and Robert Hagg (Mark Pysyk stays, please), take them. Take money in for the rest of the year if need be to get better picks. The same with Vinnie Hinostroza and Drake Caggiula if there are suitors. Regardless, these are all players so close to replacement level that they can be sent to seek new opportunities in the offseason to make room for the next wave mentioned in the section above, and then new one-year contracts can be brought in to bridge the gaps.

Previous Sabres teams held onto non-core players for too long and forced themselves into a corner for keeping them despite being known commodities and, usually, those players have stifled the NHL tracks of many of their next in line prospects through the years. It’s a mistake that they can correct in this next era, and a revolving door of one year UFA deals from year-to-year allows for more chances to find a buy-low bounceback player that could either become a multi-year player or trade deadline asset without forcing themselves into a corner with keeping a player for longer than they have a deserved roster spot – See Eakin, Cody. 

Hit Singles off the Ice

To wrap up this post, let’s talk about the off-ice product because no matter how promising the team may look for the next four months of hockey, there will still be a lag where the fanbase is going to still be falling behind returning to the gates. Since it’s probably out of the question for there to be regular 10K+ attendance games from here out, start planting some seeds to get a more blooming flower in 2022-23. Keep up the single-game promotions, sprinkle in some nostalgia, help game attendees feel comfortable with their decision to attend the game in the snack and merchandise lines. Have a night dedicated to Rick (Please? I need Rick to do a ceremonial puck drop and then try to give both captains a dog hug). And honestly don’t even stop at the in-arena product. Give people reasons to tune into MSG or ESPN+ while they’re not coming to the arena. Make them watch a game, curiously check the upcoming schedule, and think “Hey maybe I should check out ___ game, why not”. I don’t think the home run is there until the team gets so good that it drives a bulk of the return, and I don’t expect the ticket prices to drop, so this plan of singles is probably the best they can manage for the rest of this season, and hopefully, the end of season feedback they get from fans helps them bounce back over the summer and return the excitement that comes with attending a hockey game in Buffalo. 

That’s all for now. Happy New Year, everyone!

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz