Last week, we took a look at the Buffalo Sabres’ “future core” progress at forward. This process involved an examination of where each of the team’s young forwards (currently playing in either the NHL or AHL) stood in terms of their 2021-22 performance relative to expectation.

Now that we’re roughly one-third of the way through the 2021-22 season (with enough sample to start taking the underlying numbers a bit more seriously), it felt like a good time to do a bit of a progress check. In this article, we’ll duplicate the format from last week and apply letter grades to the Sabres’ young assets on the blue line.

For the most part, the forwards in the system have progressed better than expected so far this year. Defensively, there are certainly pieces to be optimistic about, but the overall complexion isn’t as inspiring. This, of course, excludes prospects at the collegiate level (i.e. Owen Power and Ryan Johnson), but there are other “key pieces” to the future defensive corps that have fallen short through the first 33 games.

Progress on the Farm

Matthias Samuelsson – Grade: A

In terms of defense, the Sabres’ most impressive developmental strides this season have come at the AHL level. The most significant leap we’ve seen so far has come from Samuelsson, a 21-year-old left-shot defenseman.

The reason an “A-Grade” is so significant in this case is how his situation this season has been impacted by circumstance. Leading up to the 2021-22 campaign, a lot of fans had the former second-round pick penciled into the Sabres’ defensive top-six. After suffering a lower-body injury during prospect camp, he was forced to begin the season in the AHL with the Rochester Amerks.

He’s taken it all in stride. Through 16 games in Rochester, he’s posted 12 points. That points-per-game rate is good for 21^st among all AHL defensemen. According to Dobber Prospects, his current point total of 12 in 16 contests carries an NHLe of 30 points in an 82-game NHL season.

Based on Chad DeDominicis’ Amerks tracking data, Samuelsson is the team leader in zone-entry denials and primary shot contributions to this point in the season. He also leads all Amerks defensemen in shot-share at (i.e. Corsi) with a rate of 56.1%. By all accounts, he’s an NHL-ready player who should see big league minutes before the end of the season.

Casey Fitzgerald – Grade: B-

In all of the statistical categories where Samuelsson leads among Amerks defenders, Fitzgerald is usually a close second. Before the start of the 2021-22 season, I didn’t have high hopes for the 24-year-old. It’s not that he played poorly in the Amerks games I watched last season, but nothing about his game made him look like anything more than a potential seventh defenseman at the NHL level.

Though my stance on that hasn’t changed, reaching his “ceiling” looks more likely now than it did before. His status as a right-handed shooter is also a big plus and should help his cause in an organization that currently lacks prospect depth in that area.

A four-game sample is absurdly small, but Fitzgerald has posted solid underlyings so far at the NHL level. While his current five-on-five xGF rate of 47.71% doesn’t jump off the page, it is the best mark among Sabres blueliners since his call-up. We’ll see how long he sticks around with the big club, but the early returns are solid.

Borderline Satisfactory

Jacob Bryson – Grade: C+

Subjectively, Bryson’s performance in 2021-22 has been pretty on-par with the Sabres defense as a whole. The issue here is consistency. After a good start to the year, he struggled, particularly when he was separated from Colin Miller.

As a duo, the Bryson-Miller pairing still holds the best xG (49.91%) of any Sabres defensive tandem that has played more than 90 even-strength minutes together this season (of which there are five). Away from his veteran safety valve, Bryson’s metrics take a significant hit, particularly in his end.

By my analysis, the numbers indicate that a lot of his success is predicated on having a solid defensive puck-retriever as a partner. The Sabres don’t have too many of those, but Miller is better than most of his Buffalo contemporaries in that area. It would explain part of why the two of them have experienced success together.

Regardless, Bryson is on pace to put up 20 points this season, which is an improvement. I had very low expectations for him, so his performance to date is a shade above satisfactory in my book.

Oskari Laaksonen – Grade: C

There’s not a lot to say about Laaksonen, but since he fits the age criteria, I decided to include him here. As a rookie with the Rochester Amerks last season, he put up solid transition numbers, but ultimately struggled in the defensive zone. Not a lot has changed in that regard.

According to Chad’s tracking data, he’s still excellent at exiting the zone, but he’s struggling pretty much everywhere else. Opposing teams are producing high-danger opportunities at a two-to-one rate while he’s on the ice, and his primary shot contribution rate is the lowest among Amerks defensemen.

Still, he’s producing a lot of points and he’s a right-shot defenseman. According to Dobber Prospects’ conversion calculator, his NHLe is 24 points over an 82-game season. A lot of his counting production has come on the man-advantage, but righties who can produce points have value.

Needs Improvement

Rasmus Dahlin – Grade: C-

It’s easy to be tough on Rasmus Dahlin. After continuing his yearly tradition of playing poorly for the first 25 games of the season, the 22-year-old seems to have “figured it out” over the last handful of games. Though he hasn’t shown any demonstrable improvement in his own end, we’re finally seeing more consistent contributions offensively, and in transition.

That’s all well and good, but going into 2021-22, fans were hoping for him to take that next leap toward becoming a franchise defenseman. For the most part, he looks like he did last year after Don Granato took over behind the bench.

That’s not a bad thing per se, but it’s less than we all expected. It’s been known that Dahlin will probably never be a proficient player in his own end. That would be a palatable reality if his offensive contributions outweighed his negative defensive impacts.

As of right now, only Henri Jokiharju has a lower xGF rate among Sabres defensemen this season. Dahlin’s mark of 42.99% is abysmal and needs to experience a dramatic leap before the end of the year. If it doesn’t, the idea of trading him this summer should at least be discussed in earnest.

On a bright note, I feel that he will finish the season strong and I don’t see things getting to that point. While his partnership with Jokiharju (which was excellent to close out the 2020-21 campaign) has been a trainwreck so far, he’s been relatively solid with every other partner. Away from Jokiharju, his xGF rate has experienced a near seven-percent improvement.

In terms of base scoring, his 21 points in 33 games (on pace for 52 total) does put him en route to best his current career-high season total of 44.

Henri Jokiharju – Grade: D+

While a lot of pointed fan ire has been directed at Dahlin, Jokiharju is probably the most disappointing young blueliner in Buffalo this season (relatively speaking, of course). For a player whom many felt had the makings of a future top-pairing defenseman, he’s fallen short in pretty much every facet of the game so far.

As mentioned above, his xGF rate of 40.16% is the lowest among all Sabres defensemen. In watching him play, the most concerning part is his inability to clear the puck in front of his goaltender. Opposing teams have been able to convert rebound attempts at a high rate while he’s on the ice, and that is certainly reflected in his defensive heatmap.

There’s really no saving grace here either. He’s had a pretty sheltered zone-deployment ratio with an OZS of over 55%. He is playing the second-most minutes per game at just over 21 minutes per night so, perhaps a reduction there helps a bit. Either way, he would need to have a pretty epic turnaround to make this year a success.

In an organization that is very thin on the right side, Jokiharju’s play has been a particularly frustrating development. If he doesn’t pan out to be at least a competent third-pairing entity, the Sabres have a lot of work to do to shore up that side of the defense. Perhaps with the influx of left-handed talent coming through the system (i.e. Samuelsson, Johnson, and Power), they’ll find a partner with whom he can produce better results.

Part One – Progress Check | Sabres Young Forwards

Advanced-Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Corey Sznajder

Photo Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire