The Buffalo Sabres will open their season one week from today when they host the Montreal Canadiens. We’ve been through three rounds of cuts and five preseason contests. They have one more preseason game with the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday afternoon.

At this point, Don Granato should have a good idea of the players that he wants to have on his roster to start the season. Some interesting storylines and unexpected camp battles have formed throughout the past few weeks.

I believe we can start to put the final pieces to craft the 23 (maybe 22) player roster that they’ll begin the season with. Granato has some difficult decisions to make, particularly at forward. However, I believe the players that deserve the final spots right now are clear.

Forward

Going into camp I felt as though there were at least two roster spots at forward and if they were going with 14 forwards it would have been three spots. There were a handful of players that would be jockeying for those spots. Entering training camp I had Cody Eakin, John Hayden, Brett Murray, and Drake Caggiula as the main four that would battle it out. After being claimed on Monday, Axel Jonsson-Fjailby enters the conversation. It’s going to be difficult for him to earn a roster spot playing in only one preseason game and getting to Buffalo so late in the process.

In a pleasant surprise, 2020 second-round pick J.J. Peterka has forced his name into the conversation. Peterka has pushed the Sabres coaching staff to give him a long look with his play over the last few weeks. He hasn’t looked overmatched stepping into the pro level and has been an impact player. The area that he has stood out the most is his play on the walls and around the net in the offensive zone. Peterka’s strong forechecking ability using his speed and size was a trait that had him on a track to get to the NHL quicker than a conventional second-round pick.

Where he has had some shortcomings is in the defensive zone. There have been turnovers on the boards and at times has been caught out of position. That’s not uncommon for a 19-year-old at the pro level, but it may be what keeps him off this roster to start the season.

If it were me, I would give him a handful of games to start the year as a reward for a strong camp. If he plays less than 10 games in the NHL his contract is eligible to slide, which means he wouldn’t burn the first year of his entry-level contract.

Caggiula is likely tagged for one of those final spots on the roster. He has looked quick and efficient throughout the preseason. His history with Don Granato would be another reason that I would write his name in pen on the opening night lineup.

I know that he’s a center, but I still see Eakin on the outside looking in. He has rarely played with NHL players throughout camp and I don’t think he has done enough to force Granato to keep him on the roster. The two things that do work in his favor, as I mentioned are that he’s a center and his penalty-killing ability.

In theory, that would leave the final spot down to two players in Hayden and Murray. Hayden was signed as a free agent this past summer from the Arizona Coyotes. He brings a different style of game to the Sabres with his physicality and is a reliable veteran that Granato can put into the bottom of the lineup.

Murray came into camp riding a wave from a strong Prospects Challenge. Unfortunately, I don’t feel as though he seized the opportunity that was in front of him. I strongly believe the Sabres wanted him to make the roster because of his size and skillset around the net.

The 23-year-old has had some moments in games throughout the preseason, but I don’t know if it has been enough. He was in a position that he needed to be a standout to earn one of the final spots. Murray didn’t have the luxury of being “fine” throughout this process. According to Natural Stat Trick, he ranks 27th on the team in individual shot attempts per 60 minutes and 21st in individual shot quality at 5 on 5. That’s just not enough of an impact offensively for me to overlook the other shortcomings in his game.

Therefore, with one preseason game to go, I’d hand the last spot on the roster to Hayden. This final decision may come down to the performance in the game this weekend.

Projected final cuts: Brett Murray, Cody Eakin, Jack Quinn, and Axel Jonsson-Fjailby

Projected Forward Roster

Defense

A lot of the drama on the blue line went out the window when Mattias Samuelsson was injured in the Prospects Challenge and missed all of camp to this point. The Sabres’ top seven was set in stone at that point outside of someone making an unexpected push.

I had high hopes for Jimmy Schuldt to be a camp standout, but he arrived at camp late and only got in one preseason game. He was part of the cuts that were placed on waivers yesterday to be assigned to the AHL.

The only battle was who is going to be the one to start as the sixth defenseman to start the season. The unfortunate part is all seven defensemen on the roster have had their struggles over the past few weeks. Turnovers have been a major issue for the Sabres revamped blue line in the five preseason contests.

I know it’s only the preseason, but according to NST only Jacob Bryson and Will Butcher have a score-adjusted on-ice shot quality share over 50% among the top seven defenders. Preseason or not that’s not an ideal situation. Hopefully, Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju can find that form they had under Granato at the end of last season. Realistically their performance on the blue line is the only one that matters this season.

Projected final cuts: Brandon Davidson and Casey Fitzgerald

Projected Defense Roster

Goaltenders

The goaltending decision has already been made by Don Granato. Craig Anderson and Dustin Tokarski will be the tandem that starts the year with the Sabres. This was an easy call if you look at the shot adjusted numbers (goals saved above expected) from Natural Stat Trick:

• Tokarski: 0.42
• Anderson: -0.49
• Dell: -3.37
• Luukkonen: -4.37

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen dropped the ball on his opportunity. He was the only goaltender that played a full game and in fact, he played two full games. Outside of one strong period against the Detroit Red Wings he struggled and will now be the workhorse in the AHL this season.

Aaron Dell confirmed concerns about him when he was signed in the offseason. Outside of his performance in a long shootout against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday night, he didn’t give the coaching staff any reason to believe he’s an NHL goaltender. He’ll start the season splitting the net with Luukkonen in the AHL if he’s not claimed off of waivers.

Eichel Trade

But wait…there’s more!

What if we do get a Jack Eichel trade at the last minute? That would change some of the roster assumptions that are being made. As such, let’s throw out a trade scenario and put together how the roster could look if Eichel is moved in the next week.

Sabres acquire Dillon Dube, Connor Zary, Adam Ruzicka, Conditional 2022 first-round pick, and a 2023 second-round pick from the Calgary Flames in exchange for Jack Eichel

The Sabres walk out of this hypothetical deal with five pieces. I know that there’s no Trevor Zegras or Peyton Krebs in this deal. However, Connor Zary is the top prospect in the Flames system and projects out a solid top-six winger. Ruzicka is a big 22-year-old centerman that may need a change of scenery. He was a fourth-round pick back in 2017. The last piece is a middle-six winger in Dillon Dube that can help the Sabres right away. The 23-year-old has three years remaining on his deal with a $2.3 million cap hit.

The 2022 first-round pick is top 10 protected. If it is in the top 10 and the Flames decide to keep the pick in 2022, then it becomes an unprotected pick in 2023.

In this scenario, this is how the roster would look. Dube would step into the spot that was once occupied by Peterka.

Before I end this, there’s one problem with this trade. The Sabres would be under the salary cap floor by roughly $5 million if they made this move. I could not conceivably come up with any logical deal involving Eichel that the Sabres ended up above the floor unless they retained salary. This trade has so many roadblocks that we appear to be finally breaking through. However, I’m legitimately stumped on how they’re going to make this work with the salary cap when they have limited time to become cap compliant before the season starts.

Anyways, I hope you enjoyed this all. Up next from me is probably the season preview early next week.

Data via: Cap Friendly and Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images