You are here
Home > Archive >

Progess Check | Sabres’ Young Forwards

by Anth - 0

As the NHL regroups after calling a temporary shutdown as a result of a recent uptick in COVID-19 cases across the league, now seems like a good time for a little “regroup” of our own. With about a third of the 2021-22 season in the books, there is enough of a sample to start examining the progress of the Buffalo Sabres “future core”.

From a macro standpoint, things are moving according to schedule. The young entities are contributing (albeit to varying extents) and the Rochester Amerks’ current success can be directly attributed to four of the most exciting prospects in the Sabres’ system. For this exercise, I decided to assign a letter grade to each conceivable member of the Sabres’ future core. It will be broken up into two articles – one highlighting the forwards, and one for the defensemen and goaltenders.

The assigned grades are relative to expectations. That’s an important clarifier. It could give one pause, for example, if they saw a player like Brett Murray with a higher letter grade than say, Rasmus Dahlin. Dahlin is the superior asset, but Murray is performing better relative to preseason expectations.

Since letter grading can be rather arbitrary for something like this, I’ve added some context in each section. Specifically, I touch on what each player has done well, and what we need to see from them over the remaining 52 games to feel satisfied with their progress heading into the offseason. In terms of scale, let’s consider a “C-Grade” as the threshold for what’s considered satisfactory.

With all of that in mind, let’s kick things off with the forwards.

Exceeding Expectations

Tage Thompson – Grade: A

We’ll start with the crown jewel of Sabres’ developmental leaps this season. Leading up to the 2021-22 campaign, a healthy portion of the fan base had written off Thompson as a legitimate piece of the team’s future. Given his poor underlying metrics and lackluster scoring production, those opinions were not unfounded.

This year has been different for the 6-foot-7 forward after he transitioned to the center position. I already wrote a video breakdown article on how that move has worked in his favor, so I won’t relitigate that here. From an advanced stats standpoint, the 24-year-old ranks fourth among Sabres forwards with an xGF rate of 49.18% this year (a near four-percent improvement from last season).

Room For Improvement: Defensive improvements. For as great as Thompson has been on offense, there are still holes in his defensive game. It has improved to a degree, but we need a bit more consistency, and a bit less reliance on a heavy OZS rate (56.36% on the year) and defensively-inclined wingers (i.e. Rasmus Asplund). His growth in this area will dictate where he lands on the Sabres’ depth chart down the middle in the years to come.

Rasmus Asplund – Grade: A

If it weren’t for how well he finished the 2020-21 season, Asplund might have received the nod over Thompson here. Regardless, he continues to surpass expectations while exhibiting growth and maturity in his game. Aside from maybe Kyle Okposo, no Sabres forward has produced positive impacts more consistently through the first 30 games.

As a high-energy forechecker with strong defensive abilities, Asplund has provided value to all of his linemates in 2021-22. With a current xGF rate of 50.44%, he ranks third among Buffalo forwards. From a raw scoring standpoint, he’s on pace for 41 points this year, which would be a career-best. The Sabres slot-shooting concentration, in particular, sees a significant improvement while he’s on the ice.

Room For Improvement: At the risk of waxing poetic here, there isn’t an area of glaring need. Given his ceiling and current role on the team, I just need him to keep doing what he’s doing. If I were to nitpick and pick something, I’d like his penchant for aggressive forechecks to result in more individual goals, but that would be a cherry on top of the value he already provides.

Brett Murray – Grade: A-

Those of you who listen to the Expected Buffalo Podcast know I’m not the biggest Murray fan. That being said, he has undeniably exceeded any reasonable projection from this summer.

It’s become evident that Don Granato prefers to have him as a mainstay in the Sabres lineup. To go a step further, Granato sees Murray as a strong fit for Dylan Cozens. If that holds (which it appears it will considering Murray was still flanking Cozens’ line in practice this week along with Alex Tuch), it will further cement his standing.

Room For Improvement: Murray does a nice job with puck-retrieval and net-front positioning in the offensive zone. What I would like to see is some defensive utility. Relative to his teammates, he’s posted below-average xGA numbers (2.6 expected goals-against per-60).

He’s too slow on his feet to ever-present significant value in transition, but if he can be a strong zone-player at both ends, he could turn out to be a cost-effective bottom-six player as the future core continues to take shape in Buffalo.

On the Right Track

Dylan Cozens – Grade: B

Initially, I was worried I might have overrated Cozens’ progress. It’s not that he isn’t playing well, but recency bias plays a role in this case. At the beginning of the year, a healthy contingent of fans was calling for him to be sent down to the AHL (something I argued vehemently against). To be fair to the other side of the debate, Cozens did hold an abysmal xGF rate of 40.69% through the first half of the season.

Since that rocky start, his on-ice impacts have improved drastically (xGF rate of 49.27% over his last 16 contests). The presence of Kyle Okposo on his right side has also helped relieve the young centerman of some defensive-zone responsibility, allowing him to focus on the strongest area of his game – zone transition.

According to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, Cozens is already one of the most effective puck-carrying forwards in the league. It’s his greatest strength on a team that has largely struggled to enter to zone with control.

Room For Improvement: Like Thompson, I need to see Cozens develop more of a two-way game. His transition skills are off the charts, and his offensive impacts are solid, but that third facet of his game is required to become a true top centerman. As it stands, he has the third-highest xGA/60 rate among Sabres forwards at 2.70.

Playing alongside and learning from the likes of Okposo and, moving forward, Tuch should help to a degree. He’s a big kid who can skate well. If he can nail down his defensive positioning, he’ll be a force.

Victor Olofsson – Grade: B-

As far as recency bias goes, Olofsson is Cozens’ antithesis at the moment. At the beginning of the season, he looked like a new player. Not only was he producing points (14 points in as many games), but his metrics at five-on-five were some of the best on the team.

Shortly after this outstanding start to the season, the 26-year-old missed three weeks with an undisclosed injury. Upon his return, he wasn’t quite the same. Chad put together a great article yesterday explaining why, so we won’t dive into that here.

Simply put, the production has stagnated as Olofsson has been held without a goal since his return to the lineup. If you would have asked me last month, I’d have him a full letter grade higher, but his recent dip does have me a bit concerned. As a pending RFA, he is a key player to watch as the year marches on. His next contract could vary significantly in value depending on where he ends the season from a base production standpoint.

Room For Improvement: Honestly, Olofsson just needs to get back to the player he was to start the season. A swift forward with a knack for entering the offensive zone, and attacking the middle of the ice. He’ll never be a two-way winger, but that’s okay. If he can get back to being productive on offense, it doesn’t matter.

Rediscovering his power-play conversion rate would help too, but a lot of that blame falls on the Sabres’ puck-distributors on the man-advantage.

Falling Short

Anders Bjork – Grade: D

Bjork’s situation is a little disappointing. As the primary piece (debatably) of the trade that sent Taylor Hall to the Boston Bruins at last season’s trade deadline, fans in Western New York had high hopes for the 24-year-old heading into 2021-22.

On top of his lack of scoring, he has struggled to put up the same strong underlying numbers we saw to close out the 2020-21 season under Granato. A big part of it is the fact that the coach has saddled him with a cast of very lackluster linemates, but even individually, he hasn’t made his presence felt at all.

There is still time for a turnaround and he’s locked down to a very reasonable deal through next season ($1.6 million AAV).

Arttu Ruotsalainen – Grade: D

This one stings. Coming into the season Sabres fans had high hopes for the young Finnish sniper. On a team with a distinct lack of finishers, he was supposed to stand out in that regard. Unfortunately, he failed to seize the opportunity he was given and has landed back with the Amerks.

To make matters worse, his scoring woes have continued at the AHL level where he has managed just two points in six games. Unless he earns another NHL chance, he might be the Sabres’ next Dominik Kahun situation (i.e. an RFA that doesn’t receive a qualifying offer).

Casey Mittelstadt – Grade: Incomplete

I wasn’t sure where to put Mittelstadt as he has only appeared in four games so far. Three games into his return from an early-season ailment that sidelined him for nearly two months, the de facto top centerman went down again. Though undefined, his current injury (rumored to be abdominal) seems to carry another longer-term recovery window.

Hopefully, he can come back quickly and continue cementing his role with the team. When Granato took over head coaching duties last year, Mittelstadt was one of the players who began to thrive. It will be interesting to see if he can pick back up where he left off.

Rochester Youth Movement

Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka, Peyton Krebs – Grade: A

Though they technically aren’t Sabres yet, I wanted to make sure I acknowledged these three as they should all play key roles in the overall rebuild. This trio has exceeded expectations in every imaginable way as AHL rookies.

Quinn has done his best to silence his draft-day doubters while breaking every NHLe calculator in existence. He currently ranks seventh in the AHL scoring with 24 points in 17 games. Peterka has been right by his side for the majority of the year. His 20 points in 22 games are good for 22nd in the league.

As the key return in the Jack Eichel trade, Krebs has lived up to his billing for the Amerks. Between his time with Rochester and the Henderson Silver Knights, he too is producing over a point-per-game pace at the AHL level.

The Amerks’ second-place position in the North Division is thanks in large part to these three. While they could all probably fit in nicely as NHL players right now, it’s nice to see them win and develop on the farm in what is a rebuilding year for the parent club.

Data via: Corey Sznajder, Evolving Hockey, and Hockeyviz.com

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images

Top