Following what can be conceived as an inauspicious start to the 2021-22 season, a portion of the Buffalo Sabres fanbase has expressed concern regarding the second-year center, Dylan Cozens. To go along with pedestrian base scoring production to start the year (five points in 12 games), fans have honed in on some individual gaffes at both ends of the ice.

While it’s true that his underlying impacts are relatively poor to this point, perhaps we need to step back and review the circumstances behind his early-season performance. Aside from the small sample, other contextual factors need to be considered here when analyzing his advanced metrics thus far.

Let’s take a look at what he’s doing well, why he’s struggling in certain areas, where he’s excelling, what he can do to improve overall.

Surface Impacts

Despite some questionable decisions with the puck in the offensive zone (which we’ll expand on later), Cozens is making a slightly more significant expected goals-for impact than last season. Through 12 contests, he currently holds an xGF/60 rate of 2.50 according to Hockeyviz. That mark represents a very modest improvement over the rate of 2.43 he posted a year ago.

Despite the distinct lack of finishing, the Sabres produce a much greater rate of five-on-five chances with Cozens on the ice. Part of this has to do with the fact that he’s starting in the offensive zone nearly 70% of the time, but the impact disparity is significant nonetheless.

The primary aspect of Cozens’ offensive game we need to see this year, is consistency. For better or worse, he’s a top-six centerman on this team. We’ve seen him register some really impressive numbers over splintered samples, but he needs to provide positive impacts on a more regular basis.

The real “problem” this season has been the 20-year-old’s defensive game (or lack thereof). According to Evolving Hockey, Cozens carried the second-highest xGA/60 rate among Sabres forwards last season at a rate of 2.83.

That’s bad, but it would be an improvement over his current 2021-22 mark of 3.50 (the highest on the team). It’s a pretty dark mark on his record, especially on a squad that currently ranks 13^th in the NHL with an overall xGA/60 rate of 2.29 at even-strength. His struggles in this area aren’t exclusively his fault per se (you’ll see what I mean), but the individual shortcomings are evident.

Linemates and Roster Context

Now that we know the figures, let’s apply some context. We already mentioned Cozens’ heavy OZS rate, but what about his linemates? To date, Jeff Skinner and Vinnie Hinostroza have served as his primary wingers for 2021-22.

Neither of them is particularly good defensive players, The reason this is worth noting is that, as the center on that line, Cozens is being relied upon as the fulcrum of their overall two-way success. It’s not like Casey Mittelstadt’s situation last year playing alongside Rasmus Asplund (a winger who took assumed a lot of the defensive responsibilities that would traditionally belong to the center).

Cozens’ lack of a defensively talented winger to lean on has been noticeable. This certainly isn’t meant to absolve Cozens of responsibility for his poor defensive impacts. It should however be considered, especially when you factor in what has been a very significant QoC versus QoT disparity so far.

While his deployment and usage here aren’t nearly as blatant or egregious, it could be compared to Mittelstadt’s rookie year to some degree. A young center with defensive shortcomings is being asked to play without much help in the form of talented linemates. It’s part of the reason many observers (myself included) clamored for the addition of a veteran insulator down the middle this summer.

With Mittelstadt (this season’s de facto top center in Buffalo) sidelined, Cozens has even more weight on his shoulders. It’s a particularly tough situation to be in as a young player still trying to iron out the kinks in their NHL game. As you can see, he’s not being given very much support.

Shoot the Puck!

Aside from the poor defensive numbers, this has been by far my biggest beef with Cozens in the early going. For someone who is a good shooter in his own right, he tends to force a pass in most circumstances. If one didn’t know any better, it almost looks like he’s actively avoiding the use of his shot altogether.

The clip below is from the Sabres’ matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning last week. Cozens carried the puck into the offensive zone on a 2-on-1 with Rasmus Dahlin. Instead of taking a shot, he sent a pass into the arm of a very well-placed, horizontal defender, killing the sequence.

That type of shot-averse approach cannot continue. Unselfish hockey is one thing, but this isn’t the only instance so far this season where he’s forced a pass in an obvious shooting situation. There’s a reason why through 12 games he’s only recorded 26 unblocked shot attempts. For context, Tage Thompson leads the Sabres with 72.

As of a week ago, Cozens’ had the lowest unblocked shot attempt rate on the team. Fortunately, the last two games (against the Detroit Red Wings and Washington Capitals, respectively) have helped boost his numbers toward the middle of the pack. Let’s hope that trend continues.

Transition Prowess

To this point, we’ve examined his linemates, matchup quality, and areas that need improvement. So, what is Cozens doing well to this point? The answer lies in the transition data.

Shayna Goldman of SportsNet posted an article yesterday outlining which NHL forwards have had the greatest success in transition so far this season. According to the SportsLogiq data she referenced, Cozens, is currently ranked as the eighth-most effective controlled-entry forward in the NHL.

Which forwards are carrying up the ice most often? Setting up their teammates shots? Generating royal road passes? Let's take a look… https://t.co/kh8x4WB9qe pic.twitter.com/dPdlNXJxGq

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) November 9, 2021

Shayna went on to explain that the 20-year-old was not only effective as a controlled-entry specialist. His controlled-exit rate was also near the top of the league among all forwards (fourth, to be exact).

This leads me to believe that Cozens’ defensive-zone woes probably have a lot to do with an inability to retrieve the puck. That problem falls on the entire line. Right now, that trio essentially relies on Cozens to do it all without any real support. That’s a problem.

To cross-reference this data (and compare Cozens’ transitional proclivity to that of his teammates), I wanted to see if Corey Sznajder had tracked any Sabres games at this point in the season. I was able to find his tracking data for two games, one against the Seattle Kraken, and one against the New Jersey Devils.

What you’ll notice on the charts below is that Cozens ranks near the top of the Sabres’ list of transition entities in both games. What you may not have noticed right away is how poorly Hinostroza and Caggiula fared, particularly against Seattle.

It’s worth reiterating that this is merely a two-game sample, but it does fortify SportsLogiq’s findings. On top of that, it lends evidence to my visual observation that Cozens is basically on his own in terms of flipping the ice on that line. Hinostroza and Caggiula are strictly passengers.

To go a step further, I perused Corey’s data from last season as well. While Cozens certainly wasn’t producing controlled zone-entries at an “elite” level, he was still one of the Sabres’ most effective forwards in transition behind Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall, who were head-and-shoulders above the pack.

Closing Suggestions

On a rebuilding team devoid of depth down the middle, Cozens is being asked to play “over his head”. This was to be expected to an extent. The injury to Mittelstadt has exacerbated the problem. A second-year player can rarely step into a top-line center role and flourish. It’s even more difficult when they don’t have strong pair of wingers to help assume some of the play-driving and/or defensive duties.

This is where Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo come in. Before you roll your eyes, consider what we learned here. The data tells us that Cozens does a good job of both entering and exiting the zone with control. If he had a winger (in this case two) who thrived at puck retrieval, his offensive skillset could flourish.

It’s worth noting that his linemates in this case would have limited reciprocal offensive strengths, which could lead to a reduction in Cozens’ base scoring numbers. Regardless, playing alongside two veteran players with long histories of steady defensive play would likely be a great thing for his development. My theory is that his underlying impacts would experience an immediate and noticeable improvement as well.

Some have suggested moving Cozens to the wing. I would be open to that idea, for at least a short while. Though the Sabres don’t have enough healthy and capable centermen to facilitate that move right now, once Mittelstadt returns to the lineup, it’s something Don Granato could try.

The Sabres want Cozens to develop into a top-six center in the grand scheme of things. Regardless, a move to the wing could help him slow things down and regain some of the confidence he seems to have lost.

Others have even gone as far as suggesting an AHL stint. That option doesn’t make a lot of sense to me personally. It’s not like his counting stats have stagnated to the point where he needs to tear up a lower league to get back on track. I would much rather see Granato’s staff try to switch up his deployment approach to something more viable before sending him down.

For now, the wisest path is to be patient and let him continue to work through his flaws against NHL competition. Once the center spine is fully healthy, the coaching staff should look into providing him a bit more shelter, but an assignment to Rochester would be an overreaction, given the circumstances I’ve outlined here.

Advanced Metrics courtesy of Hockeyviz, Evolving Hockey, Corey Sznajder and Natural Stat Trick

Charts courtesy of Hockeyviz

Photo Credit: Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images