Small sample sizes are never fun, but when Jack Eichel is finally traded and Peyton Krebs becomes a Sabre, you have to take a look at what’s there, so let’s do that today. Krebs has played 13 NHL games, 9 of those coming this season before the trade, so while that’s not anything to conclude yet, it lines up with a conventional 9 game sample that CHL prospects will occasionally get before heading back to juniors for their D+1 or D+2 seasons, so what we have to work with isn’t unprecedented for evaluation. 

Note that all game log tables are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Krebs has consistently played in the 10-15 minute range this season, which even with the early injury woes for the Golden Knights this season is what would probably be expected from a second-pro-season player on a cup-contending team. He has had the on-ice corsi advantage in 5 games, the disadvantage in 6, and twice the shot attempts have been even. However, with expected goals at 5v5, he has only had the advantage 4 times in those 13 games, and only one of those instances came this season. The rates for the expected goal numbers don’t favor him or his linemates either, as only four times has xGF/60 been over 2 this season, and only once has it been under 2. 

For further context per Natural Stat Trick, Krebs’s most common forward linemates were Chandler Stephenson, Will Carrier, Keegan Kolesar, and Nicolas Roy. Carrier’s name being out there of course will shoot up the ears of Sabres fans and immediately connect that to a checking role for Krebs, so the disadvantage in expected goals doesn’t feel great to look at, but again with the limited game sample and no more than 15 5v5 minutes in any single game this year, you, of course, have to recognize the limited sample. (Again, I didn’t say this was going to be the most informative content, but sometimes all you can do is take a look)

Individually, on 21 total shots at 5v5, 11 have been on goal, 6 have been wide, and 4 have been blocked. No goals yet in the NHL for Krebs, but the ixG would expect a little more than 1 goal out of that sample, so there aren’t any red flags yet there either. Incorporating MoneyPuck into the analysis, the locations of the shots mostly being in the center of the zone and closer to the crease is very promising and a good place for optimism.

Once Krebs is playing full-time in Buffalo, the first place to evaluate will be from where his shot attempts are coming and where those he is setting up are coming. In his first few games in Rochester, he has mostly been looking to set up shooters and those shots have mostly come from quality locations, which is what probably should be expected for a guy of his pedigree showing up in the AHL after making a strong NHL club out of training camp this season. The barometer when he comes up should be when the organization determines that he can play the top six role in Buffalo that he is playing in Rochester. He doesn’t need to play bottom six hockey in this organization in the NHL where there are certainly not Stanley Cup aspirations for this season. In the meantime, if Krebs can find the chemistry that Sean Malone has developed so far with JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn, and those three can consistently be a top AHL line until they’re each ready to be recalled, the dreaming of a hopeful future can resume in Western New York.

Photo Credit: Rochester Amerks/Facebook