Anthony wrote two articles this week ranking the forward and defense group of each team in the East Division. The Buffalo Sabres have finished at the bottom half in both of those and they’re going to be in a similar spot in these final rankings.

I’ll be looking at the goaltending tandems of all eight teams and rank them based on performance over the last two years. We all should know that goaltenders are incredibly difficult to predict. We see historically great goaltenders go in the tank out of nowhere and bad goaltenders rise to the top.

The Data

I looked at two goaltending data points from Evolving Hockey that range over the last two seasons. The first stat is their wins above replacement (WAR) model. Gives us an idea of the type of impact that these goaltenders have had on wins over the last two years.

The other statistic is goals saved above expected (GSAx). It’s important to look at adjusted data points that take shot quality into account when reviewing a goaltender. If you focus on straight save percentage you’re doing it wrong. Goaltenders can be overestimated with a good save percentage on a team that doesn’t allow a lot of shot quality against. Meaning they face easier shots than other goaltenders in the league. Hence, the importance to look at the adjusted data to get a true feel of the performance.

Let’s start by looking at some charts before getting into the rankings.

Above, you’ll see the combined WAR rating of the current goaltender tandems for each club. I should mention here that the Islanders data only includes Seymon Varlamov. Ilya Sorokin hasn’t played any games in the NHL.

You can see that the Sabres have the second-lowest combined WAR rating in the division. They only finish ahead of the Washington Capitals tandem of Craig Anderson and Ilya Samsonov.

Breaking it down to the player level gives you an idea of where Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark shake out. We can also see here that Anderson is the one dragging down the numbers for the Capitals. They actually saw decent results last season when Samsonov was in goal.

Transitioning to goals saved above expected, once again, we see the Sabres at the bottom here. Anderson continues to drag down those numbers for the Capitals. In reality, the Sabres are way behind the rest of the division in this category.

Once again at the player level, we see the ugly numbers for Hutton and Ullmark. Along with Anderson, they’ve been the worst goaltenders in the division over the last two years by a wide margin.

Rankings

1. Boston Bruins – Tuuka Rask | Jaroslav Halak

You can see clearly in the data above that the Bruins hold the best tandem in the division. Rask has been one of the best goalies in the league the last few years and Halak may be the best backup in the league.

Now, it’s worth watching to see if we do see any type of decline. They’ll be playing behind a weaker defense group, at least on paper. They’re also getting up there in age. Rask is 33-years-old and Halak is 35. Both are the final years on their contract. So, the goaltending situation in Boston could be interesting after this season.

2. New Jersey Devils – Mackenzie Blackwood | Corey Crawford

I went back and forth on these next two in the rankings. I decided to go with the Devils at two.

Blackwood had a breakout season last year, however, I still have questions. I’d like to see him repeat that performance before I anoint him an up and comer between the pipes.

The reason that I landed on Devils at this spot is because of Corey Crawford. He was a solid signing and led all of these goaltenders in goals saved above expected last season in Evolving Hockey’s model.

The Devils will probably use both of them at almost a 50/50 split. If Blackwood does falter, Crawford will be there to step in.

3. Philadelphia Flyers – Carter Hart | Brian Elliott

Carter Hart was a big reason for the Flyers’ turnaround last season. It’s still crazy to thank that he’s only 22-years-old and has 74 games under his belt. However, his age is one of the reasons that I have third behind the Devils. I can see a scenario where he struggles some next season. The Flyers are getting older and their blue line isn’t anything special.

Combine that with the fact that Elliott has had his struggles over the last few years and the Flyers have some risk here if Hart takes a step back.

4. New York Rangers – Igor Shesterkin | Alexandar Georgiev

The Rangers are going with a youth movement in goal after years of Henrik Lundqvist being the king of the crease in Manhattan. Shesterkin only has 12 NHL games, but in those 12 appearances, he was excellent. Georgiev has put some good numbers in limited NHL work, as well.

The combined numbers of these two rank them top three as a team in the data above. If they can play at the same level we saw last season, the Rangers may finish higher up the standings than some are predicting.

5. New York Islanders – Semyon Varlamov | Ilya Sorokin

I may be underrating the Islanders here by putting them at five. Varlamov had a solid first season with the Islanders. Sorokin is the interesting one here of the two. He’s the future of Islanders in goal and comes over from the KHL with an impressive resume. He’s only 25-years-old and put up at least a .930 save percentage in the KHL in each of the last three years.

These two have the potential to form the best tandem in the division and perhaps one of the best in the league if Sorokin can bring over a similar performance from what we saw in Russia.

6. Pittsburgh Penguins – Tristian Jarry | Casey DeSmith

We’re seeing a changing of the guard between the pipes for the Penguins as well. After winning two Stanley Cups, Matt Murray was traded to the Ottawa Senators in the offseason after a few down years. The net in Pittsburgh now belongs to Tristian Jarry. He outperformed Murray last season to earn this opportunity.

We’ll see if can handle the load as the full starter now. It’s not a certainty that Casey DeSmith will be the number two behind Jarry, but he’s the odds on favorite at this point.

6. New York Islanders – Semyon Varlamov | Ilya Sorokin

I may be underrating the Islanders here. Varlamov had a solid first season with the Islanders. Sorokin is the interesting one here of the two. He’s the future of Islanders in goal and comes over from the KHL with an impressive resume. He’s only 25-years-old and put up at least a .930 save percentage in the KHL in each of the last three years.

7. Washington Capitals – Ilya Samsonov | Craig Anderson/Pheonix Copley

The Capitals had to change their plans in goal after the new of Lundqvist’s career likely being over with a heart condition that’ll require open-heart surgery. The plan was for him to back up youngster Ilya Samsonov this season.

As a result, they now have a battle for the backup role between Anderson and Pheonix Copley. Anderson was signed to a professional try-out contract. Statistically, he has been one of the worst goaltenders in the league in the last few years, as we saw in the data above. The Capitals, however, may want some experience behind Samsonov.

In 26 games, the Russian goaltender actually had a better goals saved above expected rating than Blackwood last season. The concern with him at this point is how he has recovered from a scary ATV accident during the pause last season that forced him to miss the return to play.

8. Buffalo Sabres – Linus Ullmark | Carter Hutton

Lastly comes the tandem of the Sabres. If I’m being completely honest, I don’t think it’s even that close. They have the worst goaltending situation in the division going into the season. I’m still surprised they didn’t do anything to upgrade at the position.

Ullmark improved last season, but he was still fourth-last among these 14 goaltenders in goals saved above expected in all situations. Hutton was dead last. As we saw above, they were by far the worst in GSAx over the last two years.

I want to try to find some optimism here, but it’s hard. I don’t rule out the possibility that Ullmark could continue to take steps forward, but I’m not sure that he can. I’m ready to be proven wrong, but I see him as nothing more than a solid platoon goaltender. I’m not sure he can handle being the every night goalie with his inconsistency.

Now, add in that Hutton is the one that sits behind him and the situation isn’t pretty.

Final Rankings

After ranking all of the positions the Sabres finished sixth in both the forward and defense breakdowns within the division. Here, they came in last by a decent margin.

That tells us that they have some work to do to finish in the top four of this division. They have a top-six at forward that can compete with any team in this division and the defense can take a step forward if Rasmus Dahlin hits that next level. The goaltending is an issue, but if they can just get to league average it could go a long way in getting the Sabres into a playoff spot at the end of the season.

Data via: Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images