The Carolina Hurricanes will be one of the more subtly interesting teams to watch this offseason. For now, their salary cap situation is in very good shape, however, what they choose to do in the coming months must be executed with care.

A year from now (sort of), Andrei Svechnikov will be an RFA, and Dougie Hamilton will be a UFA. As of today, the Hurricanes will have $32 million in cap space to work with in 2021, but those two assets will claim a very large chunk of that space, should they choose to re-sign them both.

On top of that, Carolina has three depth forwards and both of their netminders heading into the final year of their respective contracts. There’s no question that they’re a much more competitive team than the Buffalo Sabres, but their whole “hollow cap space” situation is vaguely similar.

The biggest hurdle in determining reasonable trades these two clubs could make is the fact that the Sabres don’t really have what the Hurricanes are expected to be after (particularly in terms of NHL-ready talent). Let’s see if we can get creative and cook up a few plausible scenarios anyway.

Hurricanes Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $7.78 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Warren Foegele (arbitration-eligible), Haydn Fleury (arbitration-eligible)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Justin Williams, Sami Vatanen, Trevor van Riemsdyk

Projected Needs: Short-Term Contributors, Defensive Depth, Goaltending Improvements (debatable)

1. Nino Niederreiter | LW | Two-years, $5.25 million AAV

Following the Sabres’ acquisition of Eric Staal this week to help bridge their second-line center gap, fans have set their sights on the wing. In terms of bonafide top-six caliber assets, Niederreiter seems like the type of player Buffalo should be looking to obtain.

Before we dive into the logistics on what the Sabres could offer for him, let’s first examine his overall impacts. An important point to identify is that the 28-year-old is coming off a very down-year in regard to his base scoring numbers. His 29 points in 67 games was a vast per-game decrease from the 53 points he registered in 82 contests last season between the Hurricanes and the Minnesota Wild.

In the interest of fairness, it is important to mention that Niederreiter’s base scoring numbers have been erratic throughout his eight years in the league. That said, his year-over-year underlying impacts were consistently very good prior to a somewhat lackluster 2019-20 campaign.

One of the keys to this analysis is the recognition that a “down year” for Neiderreiter (from an analytics standpoint) is still pretty good in the grand scheme of things. Despite experiencing an xG reduction of nearly four-percent from 2018-19, he still managed a rate of 53.97 this season. In fact, following his abysmal rookie campaign with the New York Islanders in 2011-12, the Czech winger hasn’t registered an xG rate under 53.81-percent in any of the seven full seasons that followed.

A big part of his perennially strong expected-goal ratio also has to do with his defensive ability. Last season, only three Carolina forwards accounted for better on-ice xGA/60 rates at five-on-five. This trend of defensive competence also existed during his time with the Wild, so it was interesting to see that he’s held such a high career OZS rate of 55.6-percent.

Another interesting tidbit about Neiderreiter is the fact that his most common centerman during his last few years in Minnesota was Eric Staal. In 1,122:37 together from 2016-2019, they registered an xG rate of 56.42-percent. It’s probably not a coincidence that his best scoring campaign (57 points in 82 games) came while flanking Staal during the 2016-17 season.

So, let’s talk trade. The Sabres obviously don’t have any scoring or goaltending depth to part with. Given the fact that the Hurricanes currently have five defensemen making over $4 million AAV on the books (and the fact that they have perhaps the most robust analytics department in the league), they probably aren’t interested in popular targets like Rasmus Ristolainen and Brandon Montour either.

What Carolina likely wants is young, NHL-ready contributors on inexpensive contracts. For that reason, a deal involving someone like Will Borgen or Jacob Bryson could work. Or, if the Hurricanes are willing to be a bit more patient, Oskari Laaksonen could be of interest as well, despite the fact that he’ll need some AHL time before making the jump.

Jake McCabe might not be a bad asset to offer either, considering that he only has one year remaining on his current deal, and therefore won’t represent another contractual hurdle for next offseason. Either way, the Sabres would certainly have to add on their end since Carolina would likely have a lot of suitors, should they decide to shop Niederreiter.

2. Warren Foegele | LW | RFA

After doubling his scoring total from a year ago with 30 points in 68 games, Foegele made a very impressive “sophomore leap” at 24 years old. Primarily serving alongside Jordan Staal last season, he flourished, posting an even-strength xG rate of 55.95-percent on the year.

On a team full of big-name contributors, that mark was the fourth-best among Hurricanes forwards in 2019-20. He also held the sixth-highest TOI rate among forwards at 12:18 per game (just under Niederreiter). In terms of zone-starts, there was no sheltering there either, as only three of his contemporaries held lower OZS-rates on the year. So, the narrative that he played a “sheltered role” doesn’t really hold water.

Due to his status as a “late bloomer” of sorts, and the fact that he plays on a team with several household names, Foegele is a very underrated player. While he probably isn’t a top-six asset right away, he would immediately add offensive ability to a beleaguered bottom-six in Buffalo.

According to Evolving-Hockey, the arbitration-eligible Foegele is expected to command a two-year, $2.15 million deal this offseason. That’s extremely reasonable, and given the fact that the Hurricanes are likely to shed some forward depth in 2021 (three expiring contracts in the bottom-six), it’d be wise for them to retain him at that cost.

Still, if the Sabres can make an appealing offer (which again, would probably involve one of their young defensive prospects), maybe Don Waddell could be enticed to part with him.

TOI, xG, and Teammate Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz

Photo Credit: Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images