You are here
Home > Uncategorized >

Team Breakdown: The Sabres and Flyers Are A Difficult Match

As we continue to cross teams off of our trade breakdown list, the options get a little more interesting. We’ve already covered many of the more popular clubs who have been linked to the Buffalo Sabres, and several of the conceivably “tradeable” assets on the remaining teams are less attractive targets.

The Philadelphia Flyers fit the latter description. On paper, there are a few ways in which the Sabres could help fill gaps on their roster, and vice-versa. Unfortunately, the Flyers have don’t have too many enticing pieces who they would reasonably look to trade. For that reason, a couple of the names to follow are those which Kevyn Adams should ultimately avoid.

With just under $8 million to spend this offseason, Philadelphia will be pretty tight to the cap. If they plan to extend all three of Nolan Patrick, Philippe Myers, and Robert Hagg, they may need to free up cap space, especially if they hope to obtain additional reinforcements via free agency.

Flyers Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $7.83 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Philippe Myers, Nolan Patrick (10.2C), Robert Hagg (arbitration-eligible)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Nate Thompson, Derek Grant, Tyler Pitlick, Brian Elliott

Projected Needs: Cap Space, Defensive Depth, Backup Netminder

1. Scott Laughton | C/LW | One-year, $2.3 million AAV

Operating in under reasonable premises, Laughton is probably the only forward on the Flyers’ roster who could make some sense for the Sabres to pursue. While he isn’t spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, he is a marginally impactful two-way winger with some positional versatility (has spent time both at center, and on the wing).

This season, only one Philadelphia forward (Nate Thompson) held a lower OZS rate than Laughton’s mark of just over 40-percent at five-on-five. While he definitely out-performed his xGF rate on the year, his ability to produce at better-than a half-point per-game clip despite serving in a defensively-tilted role, is moderately impressive.

Contextually, it’s important to note that despite his deployment ratio, he did get to spend a lot of time alongside Kevin Hayes, with whom he held a much better xGF rate than his second-most frequent centerman, Tyler Pitlick. As far as special teams go, he did a nice job as a second-unit presence on the Flyers’ 11th-ranked penalty-kill.

Laughton’s career overview carries a certain degree of hilarity to it. Seldom will you find a player with such a large career sample, who is this close to neutrally impactful across the board. The only area of his game that isn’t obnoxiously average is his moderately impressive transition ability, which is likely part of the reason he’s been deployed in a defensive role for the majority of his career.

As stated in the opening segment, the Flyers don’t have many forward options that make sense for the Sabres, but if Adams wants a someone who can put up some points and not look foolish in his own zone, Laughton could be an option, but the Flyers’ asking price would need to be extremely reasonable.

2. Shayne Gostisbehere | D | Three-years, $4.5 million AAV

Yes, Gostisbehere is a bigger name, and his presence on the trade block is well-known. That said, the Sabres should absolutely look elsewhere for defensive reinforcements on the left side. For argument’s sake, let’s ignore the Flyers’ asking price (which would almost certainly be too much than his talent level justifies), and instead focus on the player himself.

To be clear, this isn’t an argument that he’s a “bad player”, just not one who’s impact doesn’t resemble what you’d expect from a defenseman who put up 65 points in 78 games just two years ago. Once viewed as a pairing-driving presence on the blue line, he has proven to be a very partner-dependent asset.

Alongside Philippe Myers this season, he fared quite well, registering a very positive expected-goal differential at even-strength. Conversely, he struggled in similarly sized samples with Robert Hagg, and Justin Braun.

The optimistic viewpoint would direct you to the fact that Myers’ xG differential took a substantial hit without Gostisbehere. Braun’s metrics, on the other hand, improved when separated from the 27-year-old. Individually, Gostisbehere’s xG rate of 46.96-percent in 2019-20 was by far the worst of his career.

Ever since being separated from Ivan Provorov (his primary defensive partner during his career season in 2017-18), he simply hasn’t been the same player. Gostisbehere has never been known as a defensive-defenseman in the traditional sense, but his recent downturn in offensive production has drawn more attention to the flaws in his own end.

At best, he would serve as a second-pairing blueliner in Buffalo, and the Sabres don’t really have a strong defensive presence to optimize him with on the right side. For such a high dollar rate on a three-year commitment, there are more cost-effective options to fill the role. The only way it might make some sense is if Philadelphia is essentially giving him away, which probably won’t be the case.

3. Matt Niskanen | D | One-year, $5.75 AAV

Initially, Niskanen wasn’t even going to be part of this list. As mentioned on the Expected Buffalo Podcast, it appears as though Adams is targeting “recognizable veterans” with very little term remaining on their current deals. For that reason, the 33-year-old is someone the greenhorn general manager could consider. He also seems like an ideal salary dump from the Flyers’ perspective, if they indeed elect to shed some cap this offseason.

Following his best season in nearly five years, Niskanen is an interesting asset to consider. Historically, he’s posted strong defensive metrics. That trend seemed to be coming to an end from 2017-19 with the Washington Capitals, where his shot-suppression rates were clearly not the same as they had been previously. This season, however, we saw him re-elevate that portion of his game.

The key here is the fact that the Flyers might be content to ride out the final year of this deal, especially if they feel they can get the same production out of him in 2020-21. The asking price is still very interesting to consider. If the Flyers lose Braun to unrestricted free-agency, they’ll need a replacement asset on the right side. That problem is exacerbated if they elect to trade Niskanen, another right-shot defender.

For this reason, a player like Will Borgen could be part of the ask going back the other way. That might not make a lot of sense for the Sabres, who would be adding a much older player on an expiring (and very expensive) deal, especially since they should be looking for contributions from as many ELC contributors as they can. For that reason alone, this one might not be as much of a fit as it initially seems.

Charts courtesy of Hockeyviz, Evolving Hockey, and Charting Hockey

Advanced Metrics and TOI courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Top