You are here
Home > Uncategorized >

Team Breakdown: Jost is the target that makes the most sense on the Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche are one of the few teams that find themselves in a good salary cap situation heading into the offseason. They were a Stanley Cup favorite in the Western Conference this year, but injuries played a factor in their round two departure.

They’ll look to add some pieces and take another run at a Stanley Cup. The Sabres and Avalanche don’t look like ideal trade partners on the surface. However, there is one player that the Avalanche may be open to moving that could interest the Sabres.

Tyson Jost

That player is the 2016 10th overall pick, Tyson Jost. The 22-year-old forward hasn’t lived up to his potential yet, but he’s coming off perhaps his best NHL season. The production numbers are not that impressive with only eight goals and 23 points in 67 games last year.

Where you see the improvement is beyond the production when you watch the games and in his underlying data. You’ll see below in Micah McCurdy’s isolated impact model that this past season was the best for Jost both offensively and defensively.

The Canadian-born forward led all Avalanche forwards that played at least 300 minutes at 5 on 5 in individual shot quality per 60 minutes, according to Moneypuck. His primary shot contributions were above league average this past season in Corey Sznjader’s tracking data.

You can conclude that there is more production in this player as he ages. The case can be built when you combine the primary shot contributions, his ability to generate quality scoring chances, the fact that he shot below expected at 5 on 5 last season, and his year over year growth.

The Avalanche acknowledged his improvement as a player last season by moving him up the lineup when they were going through injury problems. He rewarded them with a positive impact playing more difficult minutes.

Jost’s most common linemates last season were J.T. Compher and Matt Nieto according to Evolving Hockey. Those two are good players, but it would be interesting to see if there’s a production boost out of Jost if were to play with a higher quality of offensive teammate on a new club.

Acquisition Cost

Jost is a restricted free agent this offseason and the Avalanche may use him as a trade chip to get a piece they think can put them over the top. The issue here for the Sabres is they may not have the assets that would entice Colorado to trade him.

They don’t have a need on the blue line which is where the Sabres have their two most tradeable pieces in Brandon Montour and Rasmus Ristolainen. The only player that makes sense may be Casey Mittelstadt. Perhaps the Avalanche would entertain the idea of a swap of underperforming top 10 picks.

The two have had similar career paths. Both were likely thrown into the NHL too early and as a result, had to be demoted to the AHL in their second season. The difference here is that Jost has at least shown the ability to improve at the NHL level. Mittelstadt doesn’t have that in his resume.

It’s unlikely there’s a deal to be made here between these two clubs, but Jost is the player that the Sabres should explore if they want to discuss a trade with the Avalanche.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, Corey Sznjader, and Moneypuck
Photo Credit: Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images
Top