Team Breakdown: Flames could be a team looking to shake up their roster

The Calgary Flames are one of the more interesting teams to consider as a trade partner for the Buffalo Sabres in the offseason. Looking at their likely needs after the season, the two clubs seem like ideal partners.

The Flames have five players on their defense scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in TJ Brodie, Michael Stone, Erik Gustafsson, Derek Forbort, and Travis Hamonic. They also have an abundance of interesting forwards that they could look to move to bring in new players on the blue line.

What makes them even more interesting is that if they’re bounced early from the playoffs once again they may be ready to move some big names to shake up their roster. The Sabres enter this picture with an obvious need at forward and two defensemen in Brandon Montour and Rasmus Ristolainen that could appeal to the Flames.

Flames Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $16.9 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Andrew Mangiapane (arbitration-eligible), Mark Jankowski (arbitration-eligible), and Oliver Kylington

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: TJ Brodie, Erik Gustafsson, Derek Forbort, Travis Hamonic, Tobias Rieder, Zac Rinaldo, and Cam Talbot

Projected Needs: Defensemen and back up goaltender

Trade Targets

1. Johnny Gaudreau | LW | Age 26 | Two-years, $6.75 million AAV

We’ll kick this off with the big fish at the top in Gaudreau. He was a player that had his name surface in the rumor mill around the trade deadline. Then some speculation started to kick up again when Gaudreau was practicing down the lineup and not with his normal linemates for the first few days of Flames training camp.

The American-born winger had perhaps his worst regular season in regards to his actual production and impact at 5 on 5. He’ll turn 27-years-old in August, so it’s unlikely we’re seeing the beginning of a decline at this point. It could have just been a case of bad luck this season for Gaudreau.

He shot a career-low 8.6% and 1.3 goals below expected at 5 on 5, according to Moneypuck. However, he produced his second-best rating individual shot quality (ixG) this year at 5 on 5. He was also far and away the Flames top contributor to primary shot contributions at 5 on 5. Even when you look at Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement (xGAR) model, this past season looks like an outlier.

The two things that give me pause about acquiring Gaudreau are tied together. The acquisition cost could be high and they’d only get a player with two years of team control on his contract. After that would they have an interest in an extension for Gaudreau at 29?

2. Sam Bennett | Winger | Age 24 | One-year, $2.55 million

The other Sam from the 2014 NHL Draft hasn’t lived up to expectations with the Flames. Having said that, I think he’s an under the radar target here. Bennett could be a strong addition to the middle-six of the Sabres lineup and is a player they’d have control over after his contract expires.

At his peak, Bennett is a player that can produce between 10-15 goals and 30 points a season. Where he makes his impact is on the offensive side of the game. He just doesn’t have the shooting talent to finish consistently.

According to Evolving Hockey, he’s tied for 42nd among all forwards in the NHL in individual shot quality per 60 minutes over the last three years. As a third-line winger, he could be that player that could help get quality scoring looks with someone like Dylan Cozens and be strong on the forecheck.

This past year Bennett graded out as one of the top forecheckers in Corey Sznajder’s tracking data. As I’ve mentioned previously, if Ralph Krueger wants to keep playing a dump and chase system they need to add good puck retrievers like Bennett.

3. Mark Jankowski | C | Age 25 | RFA (arbitration-eligible)

Not many others struggled as much offensively as Jankowski this season. He registered career lows in goals (5) and points (7). The Flames decided to make a drastic change in the role of the 25-year-old center. In the two years before this season, he was deployed at above 58% offensive zone starts. This year that was drastically reduced to 46%, according to Natural Stat Trick.

In Micah’s chart below you can see how Flames took him from being a third-line player that produced around 15 goals a year to a defensive fourth-line center.

I see Jankowski more as a center that can replace the void left by the potential departure of Johan Larsson in the bottom of the Sabres lineup. He has similar defensive impacts to that of Larsson and has shown the potential to produce points. He likely can’t get the below 40% oZs deployment of Larsson, but can still be good as a defensive forward.

4. Andrew Mangiapane | LW | Age 24 | RFA (arbitration-eligible)

I’m honestly not going to spend a lot of time here because the time to jump on Mangiapane was last offseason. He was a perfect offer sheet candidate that didn’t receive his one-year, $715k contract until late in the offseason.

I see him as one of the more underrated wingers in the league, but I’m not sure the Flames would move him at this point. The only way would be in a situation where they’re desperate for help on the blue late into the offseason. He’s a cost-controlled forward that could fill in for the role that would be vacated by Gaudreau if they do move him this offseason.

This is more of a frustration of what could have been mention of the player.