Back in April, we extended a poll to our readers asking which two playoff-bound teams we should cover once the NHL returned to play (considering that the Buffalo Sabres are not one of them). Our readers selected the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference, and the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference.

As the “play-in” round of the NHL’s expanded playoff format approaches, now is the time to release our tournament previews for our respective teams. We’ll kick things off with the Avalanche, a squad that currently looks like a betting favorite to emerge from the west.

Season In Review

Completing 70 games before the cancellation of the remainder of the regular season, Colorado ranked second in their conference with 92 points. Only their Central Division rivals, the St. Louis Blues held a better record (94 points in 71 games).

Perhaps the break came at a good time for the Avalanche. After winning 11 of their 15 contests in February, they lost three of their last five in March (including two to lottery teams in the Anaheim Ducks, and Los Angeles Kings).

It’s important to note that at the time, Colorado was struggling through a rash of injuries. Impact players like Andre Burakovsky, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Nazem Kadri all missed games at some point between February and March. When four of your top-six point-scorers are sidelined with injuries, it’s obviously tough to keep pace.

All four players are expected to be fully healthy and ready to go for the playoffs, making the Avalanche a force to be reckoned with on offense. If Pavel Francouz can pick up where he left off and continue his outstanding performance in net, this is a team with very few exposable flaws.

High-Impact Players

Nathan MacKinnon

As one of the Hart Trophy nominees this season, Nathan Mackinnon made a strong case as the best player in the NHL. Registering a whopping 93 points in 69 games, he ranked fifth in the league in total scoring, and sixth in GAR with a mark of 19.8.

On a team full of offensive weapons, MacKinnon stands head and shoulders above the rest. Only two Colorado forwards bested his relative xG percentage of 5.42 this season. He also ranked third among his contemporaries in relative Corsi at 2.55-percent.

As a group, Colordao was about average in terms of unblocked-shot production registering a team xG/60 rate of 2.55. With MacKinnon on the ice, that metric experienced a 15-percent boost. It goes without saying that no other Avalanche forward was as effective in this regard.

As the offensive leader in five-on-five ice time, averaging 15:35 per-game, the Avalanche lean on him to perform in all situations. If he can continue to produce at the gaudy scoring pace we saw during the regular season, he can single-handedly take over a series.

Gabriel Landeskog

On a lot of teams in the NHL, Gabriel Landeskog would be the top forward on the roster. Though he didn’t quite match his point-per-game production from 2018-19, he was still very productive this season, scoring 44 points in 54 games.

His offensive base numbers could make this look like a down year for the 27-year-old, but his most impressive impacts were actually on defense. He’s always posted positive metrics on the back-end, but the 2019-20 season was his most impressive campaign to date in that area. Aside from Valeri Nichishkin (who we’ll touch on shortly), no other forward on the roster posted positive impacts in both xGA and xGF.

Defensively-talented forwards always shine especially bright in the playoffs, and Landeskog won’t likely be the exception. It’s how players like Noel Acciari get big paydays in free agency every summer. Obviously, Landeskog is on a different level than your typical defensively deployed forward, but the situational value can’t be overstated. If he can even moderately increase his offensive output, he has the ability to control a game (and by extension, a series).

Cale Makar

Putting forth one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent memory, Cale Makar is the odds-on favorite top go home with the Calder Trophy this offseason. At just 21 years old, he registered a whopping 50 points in 57 games, ranking seventh in the NHL among defenders.

He also posted the eighth-best GAR in the league (fifth at even-strength). Clocking an average of exactly 21 minutes per game, he was called upon just a shade less frequently than veteran teammates Erik Johnson, and Samuel Girard. Though he had the most sheltered zone-deployment on the team at 65.37-percent, his inaugural performance was nothing short of spectacular.

It remains to be seen whether or not his responsibilities change at all during the playoffs, but all signs indicate that he’ll rise to whatever challenge he faces. If he can continue to develop and be optimized the way that he has so far, he could very well be a perennial contender for the Norris Trophy moving forward.

Valeri Nichushkin

Though he’s widely recognized as a decent player in the NHL, there probably isn’t enough appreciation for just how impactful Nichushkin was this season. His 27 points in 65 games certainly won’t jump off the page, but his underlying numbers tell a different story.

In his first year with the Avalanche after spending four seasons as a member of the Dallas Stars, Nichushkin led his team with an expected-goal rate of 58.74-percent. He also ranked first in Corsi-for percentage at 55.08 on the year.

With an OZS rate of just 42.47-percent, only Matt Calvert was asked to serve in a more defensive role among Avalanche forwards. This of course makes his team-leading  xGA/60 mark of -0.57 all the more impressive. When he was on the ice this season, Colorado’s xGA rate dropped by 21-percent, allowing almost nothing in high-danger areas.

If you’re looking for an under-the-radar type of player to really hone in on and appreciate during the playoffs, Nichushkin is your guy.

Potential Weak Spots

Defensive Depth

As a team with so few (if any) glaring weaknesses, criticizing Colorado’s defense might seem misguided. On the season, they were one of the best shot-suppression teams in the NHL. Allowing an xGA/60 rate of 2.40, they relented six-percent fewer unblocked shots-against than the league average.

Despite strong metrics in their own end, the Avalanche don’t actually possess a lot of defensive depth. While players like Makar and Girard posted fantastic metrics toward the top of the defensive depth chart this season, veteran assets like Nikita Zadorov and Erik Johnson left a lot to be desired.

Even if the Avalanche can continue to cover for their weak links on defense, they need to stay healthy. If one of their top-four defenders gets hurt, there are very few viable options to eat big minutes against high-octane offensive teams.

Again, this feels a lot like nitpicking as they’ve been one of the better defensive teams in the league this year, but as Sabres fans can attest, defensive depth (or a lack thereof) is critical come playoff time.

Power-Play

Only one facet of Jared Bednar’s approach left a lot to be desired during the 2019-20 campaign. With a success rate of just 19.1-percent, the Avalanche power-play unit ranked 19^th in the NHL (just one spot higher than the Sabres).

With all of the offensive firepower Colorado possesses, it’s a bit surprising to see them struggle in this area. Perhaps with a fully healthy team, they can turn a corner. While penalties are called a little less frequently at times during the playoffs, it’s still an area that needs to be addressed by the coaching staff.

Things To Keep An Eye On

Goaltending

This is the big one. All year, the Avalanche have benefitted from very good goaltending, but can they keep it up in the playoffs? Francouz and Philipp Grubauer were one of the more impressive tandems in the NHL in 2019-20 ranking 17^th and 11^th, respectively in GSAx among netminders who played at least 1,500 minutes this season (of which there were 48 total).

*Grubauer is one slot above Varlamov on the chart below

As previously mentioned, both of these men have benefitted to an extent by their teammates’ ability to thwart danger in front of them. That being said, if a goalie isn’t on their game during the playoffs, even the tightest defensive squads can be exposed.

It will be interesting to see who takes the cage as the primary starter. There is no denying Francouz’s excellent numbers this year. He ranked sixth in the league with a .923 save percentage, but Grubauer wasn’t far behind at .916. Grubauer’s prior playoff experience (and success) could give him an edge.

Tyson Jost

I wanted to mention Tyson Jost here because he was one of the “under-the-radar” potential Sabres trade targets I’ve mentioned on Twitter for this offseason. As the 10^th-overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft, he hasn’t quite lived up to his selection status. For that reason, he’s been the subject of trade rumors dating back to last season.

Despite not posting a lot of points, Jost’s GAR has steadily increased each year in the league. At 22 years old, he could be an excellent option to pursue. Colorado may look to bolster their defensive ranks this offseason. Perhaps a player like Jake McCabe or Brandon Montour could entice the Avalanche to part with the young pivot.

It goes without saying that the Sabres need help down the middle. As a pending RFA at the end of the postseason, he could be a cost-effective option that probably wouldn’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire.

RAPM Charts and GAR Graph courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Corsi, xG, and Deployment Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Shot Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz

GSAx Chart courtesy of Charting Hockey

Photo Credit: Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images