Heading into the 2020 offseason, the New York Islanders might have the direst salary cap situation in the Eastern Conference. With about a half-dozen aging veterans on expensive contracts with term remaining, they may have to part with some value in order to be cap compliant for the 2020-21 campaign.

Rapidly declining players like Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy, Andrew Ladd, Josh Bailey, Leo Komarov, and Cal Clutterbuck all have at least two years remaining on their current contracts and altogether account for nearly 35-percent of the Islanders’ 2020-21 salary cap. Save for Bailey, who could have some level of interest around the league, the Islanders would probably have to deal futures along with any of these assets in order to unload them.

With restricted assets like Matt Barzal, Ryan Pulock, and Devin Toews due new contracts this summer, New York’s current cap space projection of $8.12 million won’t be nearly enough. According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projection tool, Barzal alone is expected to command about $9.6 million AAV on his own. Pulock and Toews combine for another $11.2 million AAV combined. Any way you slice it, bodies need to move.

It’s important to note that NHL general managers maneuver around situations like this all the time. Still, rarely do you see a team with this many untradeable assets locked down for multiple seasons. If there was ever a team that might have a really tough time creating enough space to afford to keep all of their RFA assets, it’s the Islanders.

Islanders Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Cap Space (Projected via Cap Friendly): $8.12 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Matthew Barzal, Ryan Pulock (arbitration-eligible), Devon Toews (arbitration-eligible)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Matt Martin, Derick Brassard, Tom Kuhnhackl, Andy Greene, Thomas Greiss

Projected Needs: Cap Space, Futures

Trade Targets

1. Devon Toews – D | Age 26 | RFA

As the most analytically impactful defenseman on the Islanders’ roster, Toews would be an excellent addition to the Buffalo Sabres’ blue line. There are some caveats here, which makes him a bit of a pipedream.

First, this scenario is predicated on the Sabres opening up cap space (and roster space for that matter) of their own by trading both Rasmus Ristolainen and Brandon Montour. Toews’ next contract should resemble something close to four-years at $4.76 million AAV.

The other factor that pertains to the plausibility of this acquisition is whether or not the Islanders are successful in trading one of their expensive veteran forwards. If not, they’ll likely have to choose between Pulock and Toews, as both are due significant raises as RFA’s this offseason.

Despite a relatively pricey extension that comes along with Toews, his positive impact on the Islanders’ blue line is undeniable.  In 2019-20, he ranked second to Noah Dobson (who only skated in 34 games), for the highest relative xG rate on the team among defensemen at 5.12-percent. On top of that, his team-leading xGAR metric of 9.0 is perhaps his most impressive stat on the year.

Deployment-wise, he was extremely balanced, carrying an OZS rate of 49.43-percent on the year. On its own, that information isn’t really notable. What is interesting is that it represented a 9.74-percent decrease from 2018-19. The fact that it had little impact on his underlying metrics is a good sign.

Further emphasizing his two-way ability is his on-ice shot impact, both offensively and defensively. This season, and in 2018-19, Toews’ positive presence in that regard is phenomenal. The Islanders’ unblocked shot-rate-for saw nearly an 11-percent improvement with him on the ice in 2019-20. New York also conceded nine-percent fewer unblocked shots-against with Toews deployed.

From a base statistical point of view, he bested last season’s numbers with 28 points in 68 games. That alone could increase the type of return the Islanders would seek for him. Still, if a reasonable deal can be made, the Sabres should certainly make sure they’re involved.

2. Adam Pelech – D | Age 25 | One-year, $1.6 million AAV

In a way, Pelech could be seen as a consolation prize of sorts, in the event that Toews is unavailable. While he is an impactful defender in his own right (albeit less so), his price tag is very palatable for what he brings to the table. Initially, I had Pulock in this spot, but after seeing his contract projections, he didn’t represent a value addition for a Sabres team that will have some cap hurdles of their own to navigate. He is an excellent defenseman, but he just doesn’t make sense for Buffalo at the moment.

Similar to the Toews scenario, this prospective acquisition is mostly reliant on the Sabres making room on the blue line (both physical, and financial). Like several others on the Islanders’ ledger, Pelech is a year away from a contract extension, and now might be their best opportunity to maximize a return for him on the trade market.

Pelech’s biggest contributions come in the defensive zone. As the blueliner with the lowest OZS rate on his team at 34.28-percent, his xGA mark of -0.13 is actually more impressive than it appears on paper. Over the past three seasons, he’s done a fantastic job of suppressing shots-against, making his deployment rate appropriate for his skill set. Although he did not see the offensive-zone with great frequency, Pelech has had some success gaining the zone, and helping create quality shot contributions, despite his low point totals.

On top of his solid play at even-strength, he was a very positive presence on the Islanders’ penalty-kill this season. In 105 minutes, opposing power-play units registered an xG/60 rate of 6.25 when he was on the ice. Without him, that same rate increased to 8.30 (a 29-percent uptick).

The acquisition cost here should be manageable but on the same token, his salary alone wouldn’t give New York anywhere near the relief they need. If he does somehow end up being the odd-man-out in all of this, it’s another cost-effective option the Sabres should certainly consider for their third pairing.

3. Anthony Beauvillier – LW | Age 23 | One-year, $2.1 million AAV

One positive aspect of the Islanders’ ledger is the fact that they have some young contributors coming up on entry-level deals to help fill out their forward ranks. A year from now, New York will be staring at what is likely to be a pricey extension for Beauvillier. Unfortunately for them, they’ll still have a majority of their existing bad contracts on the books.

2019-20 was a big year for Beauvillier. Not only did he post a career-high 39 points in 68 games, but he once-again posted strong metrics. The fact that he was able to continue his positive analytical presence while averaging nearly two additional minutes at even-strength than he did in 2018-19, is also noteworthy.

Beauvillier’s xWAR and xGAR marks of 1.4 and 8.1, respectively ranked second on his team among forwards, trailing only Barzal. That performance is representative of an improvement over his 2018-19 campaign where he ranked fifth in the same categories.

When examining Beauvillier’s individual impact on his linemates, his value becomes even more apparent. Of his five most consistent linemates in 2019-20, every one of them had a better xG rate with Beauvillier than without him.

His effect on Derick Brassard and Josh Bailey were particularly noteworthy. Brassard’s relative xG percentage dropped by nearly 3.5-percent away from the 23-year-old, while Bailey’s mark dropped by nearly five percent. It’s also worth mentioning that he adjusted nicely to an 11.31-percent reduction in OZS rate from a year ago.

There are two issues with Beauvillier as a potential trade piece. For starters, coming off his best statistical season, the acquisition cost might be expensive. Under normal circumstances, the Islanders likely wouldn’t be keen to shop a player like this. Given their cap situation and what will surely be a hefty pay raise a year from now, the possibility is there, but a bidding war of sorts wouldn’t be surprising.

The second issue is the aforementioned pay raise. The Sabres already have to consider extensions for Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju next season. Adding Beauvillier to the list would require some forethought in order to ensure there is enough room to retain all three. There is no reason to make this acquisition if he isn’t part of the long-term plan.

4. Casey Cizikas – C | Age 29 | One-year, 3.35 million AAV

Knowing that the Sabres aren’t currently a team that can absorb a “cap dump”, the Islanders don’t have many veteran assets that Buffalo should pursue. One player who could be an exception to that statement is center, Casey Cizikas.

If the Sabres are unable to extend Johan Larsson to a new contract, they need to find a pivot who can assume his defensive responsibilities for next season. Cizikas is all that and more.

As he approaches 30, the long-time Islander would be tough for New York to part with, but if they intend to somehow keep most of their younger assets, they may not have a choice. Looking at the eight Islanders’ forwards who currently make at least $3 million AAV, Cizikas is probably the most tradeable, and on paper, a good on-ice fit for a team like Buffalo that desperately needs to reinforce their center spine. This area becomes ever more pressing if they allow Larsson to hit the UFA market.

Because he only has one year remaining on his current contract, this deal might not make a ton of sense for the Sabres. At 30 years old next offseason, Cizikas will more than likely seek a long-term deal and one last payday to close out his career. That type of player would perhaps fit better on a contending team who could let him walk after the 2020-21 season.

The Sabres shouldn’t be in the market for one-year rentals. Still, as a defensively impactful asset, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better Larsson replacement who can also provide some offense. Perhaps if he’d consider a short-term extension after he’d make more financial sense to acquire.

RAPM Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

xG, Deployment, and Linemate Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Shot Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz

Transitions Metrics courtesy of Charting Hockey