If the Buffalo Sabres decide to operate with an internal salary cap next season, they may need to find inexpensive players with “breakout potential” on the free-agent market. Given the age of most unrestricted free agents, that seems like a big ask. Identifying UFA assets who have perhaps been buried on talented lineups, or simply misused should be the approach.

For that reason, teams who are looking for “Moneyball” UFA contributors would be wise to pursue victims of circumstance. Current Vancouver Canucks forward, Josh Leivo could fit that bill after having what looked to be a promising 2019-20 campaign cut short by injury.

As a result of only playing an average of 43 games per-season over the last three years, portions of Leivo’s advanced metrics are inconsistent. That tends to happen with small sample sizes. Still, despite inconsistent appearances as a result of both injury, and being designated as a healthy-scratch (mostly during his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs), there are a lot of positive trends in his underlying data.

After arriving in Vancouver via trade during the 2018-19 season, Leivo’s underlying numbers exploded, posting a relative xG of 5.95-percent, and a relative Corsi of 7.61-percent in 49 games. His advanced metrics were always strong, but his sample sizes were always fractured in Toronto (to say the least), so it was tough to determine actual trends from the data.

With a more consistent role in Vancouver, it was encouraging to see his metrics remain positive. This year, he did experience a dip in xG-percentage, but his overall relative mark remained positive at .19-percent. The delta appears to have come as a result of his defensive metrics, which we’ll dive into shortly.

For a player that has posted positive xGA and xGF marks over an extended sample (which Leivo has), shot-heatmaps can add another layer of context to the numbers. Since 2016-17, his isolated shooting impacts have ranged anywhere from solid, to outstanding.

It’s tough to take away much from the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons considering that he only skated in a total of 29 games between those two years. In looking at his last two seasons, however (in which he skated in 112 total contests between Toronto and Vancouver), his shooting impacts remained very solid in a much larger, less sporadic sample.

Offensively, his shot rate only varied slightly from 2018-19 to 2019-20. Defensively, it seems that he had a much better time suppressing shots a year ago. Part of that had to do with the fact that, as a team, Vancouver was better at suppressing danger in 2018-19 compared to this season (though still below-average).

Leivo was also asked to do a little more defensively this season as he experienced a 14.4-percent reduction in his OZS rate which stood at 69.96-percent in 2018-19. Add that to a new slate of primary linemates in Bo Horvat and Tanner Pearson, (two players with consistently below-average defensive metrics throughout their respective careers), and the xG and shot-suppression dips we saw in 2019-20 start to make a little more sense.

It’s worth reiterating that Leivo’s 2019-20 shot-suppression metrics were far from “bad”, but just not as impactful as they were the year prior. While opponents weren’t getting as many shots away in total while he was deployed, the unblocked-shots they did register were slightly more dangerous than average.

The basic takeaway here is that Leivo is a solid offensive contributor who can also provide slightly above-average defensive impacts in the right situation. Basically, he’s a non-traditional “high-event player” who won’t necessarily get you killed defensively. More of the “events” that occur while he’s deployed are offensive in nature, which is obviously a good thing.

Despite dealing with a heavy defensive-zone start-rate for a majority of his NHL career to this point, he would perhaps be best optimized with an offensively-tilted deployment setup (as we saw in 2018-19). He could also serve as an offensive threat alongside two defensively-responsible assets.

In terms of where he’d fit with the Sabres, Leivo could slot in nicely alongside Johan Larsson (assuming he is re-signed, of course) as a Zemgus Girgensons replacement. The famed “LOG Line” of Girgensons, Larsson, and Kyle Okposo was a danger-suppression force last season, but they were never really a threat to score. Leivo could provide some offense to make that trio even more dangerous.

He could also be a nice compliment to a zone-transition specialist like Marcus Johansson. That line would of course require a center with some finishing ability, and save for Jack Eichel, the Sabres are currently devoid of that type of pivot on the roster.

At the end of the day, Leivo is a utility player who can move up and down the lineup in a pinch without severely damaging production. Those players are valuable, despite rarely jumping off the scoresheet. If he can fully recover from the fractured kneecap he suffered in December, he could be a great value option for a Sabres team in need of offensive depth.

According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projection tool, he’ll likely command a deal resembling three years, $2.17 million AAV on the open market. That cost is perhaps a bit high for a player coming off a long-term injury, despite being on pace for 43 points (in an 82-game season) when it occurred. Still, he has shown some growth with the Canucks after failing to consistently crack the Maple Leaf’s lineup from 2013-2017.

If he would agree to a two-year deal at under $2 million AAV, Buffalo might be well-positioned to give the 27-year-old a chance in the bottom-six.

Corsi, xG and Deployment Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

RAPM and GAR Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Shot Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz