We found out last night that the Buffalo Sabres will officially be selecting eighth overall in the 2020 NHL Draft. They dropped down one spot from seventh due to the ridiculous outcome of a team currently in the return to play format winning first overall.

Now, we begin the months-long debate of if the Sabres should trade their first-round pick for immediate help. There are legitimate arguments on both sides of this discussion and honestly, there’s not a wrong answer.

I find myself landing on the side of keeping the pick. Having said that, if the right move comes along they should have no reservations about trading it. The problem is that I don’t see that player that would be worth trading the pick becoming available to them. Therefore, I’m against any idea that you make a desperation move and overpay to fill a need.

Forward Class

Putting aside the potential players that could be available for a moment, the 2020 draft class has a group of forwards at the top that arguably is the best forward crop at the top in a long time. If you take Alexis Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield out of the equation there are still a handful of high-end talent prospects.

The next group behind the top two players consists of Tim Stutzle, Lucas Raymond, Alex Holtz, Anton Lundell, Marco Rossi, and Cole Perfetti. Any of those players can fall between 3-10 in the upcoming draft. Even the next level behind that group is solid with Seth Jarvis, Noel Gunler, and Jack Quinn.

The Sabres are a team that is in desperate need of a young high-end talent at forward. This draft class provides them that opportunity to grab one to add to their pipeline and help them be a contender in the future.

This is one of the reasons that I just can’t bring myself to consider moving the pick for anything outside of a home run. I fully understand that prospects in the NHL are a roll of the dice outside of the top three to five picks. Alan from SB Nation’s Raw Charge recently wrote an article about the value of draft picks. He found that the average value of that pick gets you a player like Bo Horvat. That type of player is someone the Sabres could certainly use, but it’s also possible they could end up with someone like Brandon Sutter that is the average value at picks 9 and 10.

All of this to say that, of course, there are no promises in making the pick. However, in a class with this talent, the odds should be in your favor to hit on the player you select. There’s also no need to fear that this player won’t see the NHL for three years. The last player selected eighth overall that did not play in the NHL by their D+2 season (the second year after being drafted) was Derrick Pouliot back in 2012. If the player they select doesn’t play in the NHL next season, they will be by the 2021-22 season.

The other part that you don’t want to overlook in all of this is the salary cap situation. The Sabres need a player to come in and produce on a cheap contract. They can accomplish that by picking a player at eighth overall. The cap is likely staying flat for at least a year and probably longer. They don’t have a ton of cap space as it is after re-signing RFA’s this year and will need to give Rasmus Dahlin a new contract in the 2021 offseason. Having a productive player on an entry-level contract can go a long way for this club in the next few years.

Player Availability

The other end of this discussion is the player that the Sabres would acquire if they trade the pick. It’s no mystery they need a young second-line center to fill in behind Jack Eichel. The issue that presents itself here is that teams usually don’t make that player available.

I went through every team and wrote down realistic options at center the Sabres could trade their first-round pick for. Here are the players:

Derek Stepan, Dylan Strome, Tomas Hertl, Anthony Cirelli, Ryan Johansen, Adam Henrique, Andrew Copp, Max Domi, Boone Jenner, and Pavel Zacha. 

Only two players on that list make any real sense in a trade for the Sabres and those two are Domi and Cirelli. The others don’t make sense based on age or just not worth the value of a top 10 pick.

Domi is an interesting idea for sure, but would the Montreal Canadiens trade their top center in the division? Especially when they have key players that are aging and they may want to keep trying to be a competitive team. If Jesper Kotkaniemi returns to the type of player we saw in his rookie season, the Canadiens may explore moving Domi next offseason.

Cirelli has been the idea talked about the most, but again how likely is it? He’s a non-arbitration restricted free agent this offseason. The Tampa Bay Lightning will be up against the salary cap if it does indeed remain flat. With Cirelli not being able to take the Bolts to arbitration and nobody using offer sheets, the Lightning hold the power in that negotiation. They can just force him into a team-friendly deal like many others on that club have done to keep the band together. Then they can move out some older players in other deals to give them some cap space.

Now, we’re into the debate if it’s worth it to trade the pick for Strome or Hertl. I don’t think Strome carries the value to be acquired for a top 10 pick. Hertl, on the other hand, does have that value but has warning lights around his name.

He’s coming off his second major knee injury in career and may not be himself right away. That issue is compounded when you look at his contract situation. He only has two years remaining on his contract and then he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. If he only gives you one solid year in this trade scenario is it worth it?

Vancouver Model

The better approach here maybe for the Sabres to consider trading their 2021 first-round pick and follow the path of the Vancouver Canucks. Last year on day one of the draft they selected Vasili Podkolzin at 10th overall. Later that weekend they traded their 2020 first-round pick (lottery protected), 2019 third-round pick, and a goaltending prospect for JT Miller. He went on to score 27 goals and 72 points in 69 games for the Canucks this season.

Kevyn Adams could draft a young high-end player and still get a player to fill the need a center. Essentially having his cake and eating it too. A lottery-protected first-round pick won’t carry as much value as a guaranteed eighth overall pick, but it would still likely be enough in a package to acquire one of the aforementioned players above. Trading the 15th overall pick for Strome or Hertl is easier to swallow than a top 10 pick in a forward heavy draft. Things could change, but the 2021 draft doesn’t appear to have the same depth at the top of the draft at forward as this year.

This also sends a message to the players on the team, like Jack Eichel, that they’re serious about winning now. Removing the safety net of a high first-round pick if things go bad puts more pressure on the organization which is a good thing. They run the risk of giving away a high pick, but it’s time for this organization to show the fans and themselves that they believe it’s time to start winning.

It almost forces them to make moves to put a winning product on the ice or at least one that will battle for a playoff spot.

I’m sure this conversation will evolve over the next few months as some names start to hit the rumor mill on their availability. Sitting here today and looking at the current landscape, I believe the Sabres’ best option is to hold onto the pick and select a player at eight.