The Tampa Bay Lightning forward you hear about most often in trade discussions is Anthony Cirelli. He fits the Buffalo Sabres need at center, but the likelihood that he’s moved maybe slim as a non-arbitration restricted free agent.

With the salary cap staying flat for likely the foreseeable future, the Lightning have some tough decisions to make on their roster. Going into next season, they’re looking at $5.3 million in cap space right now with an $81.5 million cap ceiling according to Cap Friendly. That’s with only 15 players under contract and they need to hand contracts to key players like Mikhail Sergachev and Cirelli.

The Bolts are going to have to move someone off their roster to make it work moving forward. If they don’t want to move one of the young pieces, they’re looking at trading one of their veteran players. That means we could see such names as Alex Killron, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Yanni Gourde be available on the market in the offseason. The thing that’ll make it difficult for Tampa Bay is all four of those players carry no-trade clauses in their contract.

Buy Low

Of the four veteran players I mentioned, Gourde is the one that is the most appealing to me. He could be an immediate upgrade in the Sabres top six and add some scoring to the lineup. The 28-year-old forward carries a contract with five more years remaining at a $5.17 million cap hit.

His age and contract may scare some people off right out of the gate. That’s understandable, but his game is one that can allow him to be successful through the duration of that contract that will carry him to 33-years-old.

This past season was a down year for the Quebec-native. He posted only 10 goals and 30 points in 70 games for the Lightning. The interesting part is that Tampa Bay head coach, Jon Cooper, decided to deploy Gourde differently this season. After his most common linemates were Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Alex Killorn during the past two years, his role was changed. This season, his most common linemates were Cedric Paquette and Patrick Maroon, according to Evolving Hockey.

Along with that came a reduction in minutes to his lowest career time on ice per games played at 5 on 5 and a shift into more defensive-zone starts. He was still close to even zone deployment at 48% according to Natural Stat Trick, however, he averaged 52.5% his two full NHL seasons prior. Not a significant change, but still worth mentioning.

The third layer in this past season is that he had the worst shooting season of his career. According to Moneypuck, he posted a 5 on 5 shooting percentage of 6.19% and shot 3.7 goals below expected. In his previous two years, he averaged a 5 on 5 shooting percentage of 14.07%.

All of this points to a bounce-back on the horizon for Gourde and not the beginning of a decline. Especially when you take into account that his individual shot quality (ixG) at 5 on 5 remained on par with his previous two seasons at 0.61.

Before last season, he was 29th among all forwards to play at least 300 minutes from 2017-19 in points per 60 minutes at 5 on 5, according to the twins’ site. When you watch Gourde play, one thing that you notice about him is that he’s always around the net in the offensive zone and that’s where you go to score. That’s why I feel like he’s a player that can give you offensive production into his 30’s because of that willingness to be around the net. It’s a similar trait to that of Jeff Skinner.

Here’s another look at the Gourde goal pic.twitter.com/tT66MFJY9c

— Jeremy Houghtaling (@JGHoughtaling) November 26, 2019

You can see in Micah’s chart below, Gourde is a solid two-way player. He can provide offense in the right role as we just broke down and can also be responsible for you in his own end of the ice. If the Sabres allow him to play in the top six he can likely produce at the rate he did before this season. It’s also possible the Sabres have a chance to get this player at a cheaper cost because of the down season and the Lightning’s need to shed salary.

System Fit

The Sabres are a team that wants to be harder to play against and acquiring Gourde would help them in that regard. He’s not a big player (5’9″), but he’s tough to play against. He’s strong on the forecheck and always pressuring the puck. His speed and willingness to take on defenders to retrieve pucks is what makes him a dangerous threat on the forecheck.

Below is an example of this as he causes two turnovers in the offensive zone and then immediately heads to the net to provide a screen, resulting in a goal for the Lightning.

If the Sabres are going to stick with a similar system to what they played last season, Gourde would be a natural fit for a team that likes to dump the puck in. In an article I wrote last month about the Sabres transition game, you may recall me pointing out that they were one of the worst teams in puck retrievals. In Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, Gourde was one of the best puck retrieval forwards in the NHL this season.

His speed also makes him a dual-threat on the rush if the Sabres do want to open their transition game more. He has a knack for starting plays deep in the defensive zone and then can get into the play with his skating to join the rush up the ice.

Conclusion

Cirelli is the player that makes the most sense for the Sabres if they had their choice, but Gourde is a fit for this team if he’s available via trade. His contract isn’t ideal, but in the right situation, he can still give you a few years of production in a middle-six role.

The complication the Sabres may have here if they did explore this option is getting him to waive his no-trade clause to come to the team. Buffalo is not seen as a prime destination right now among players

but never say never. Other players have recently waived their no-trade protection to join the club.

This is another idea to throw onto the pile that the Sabres could explore in the offseason to improve their roster and bring in more offense.

Data via Hockeyviz.com, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Corey Sznajder, and Moneypuck