In a typical summer, this is the time when we’d discuss recent free-agent signees, and prognosticate next season’s line combinations. As a team on the outside of the expanded playoff format, the Buffalo Sabres are stuck in transition before the truncated offseason begins this fall. Thankfully, the recent front office shakeup has given us the ability to speculate as to what Kevyn Adams’ might prioritize heading into 2020-21.

As we’ve heard on several occasions over the past few weeks, Adams plans to bolster the team’s analytics department (or at least increase their responsibilities). Organizational finances seem to be of internal concern. Naturally, the “Moneyball” approach would make some sense.

On the other end of the spectrum, head coach Ralph Krueger has mentioned becoming “tougher to play against” which might be an indication of his desire to become a bit more physical as a group. In the spirit of that balance, I scoured the upcoming UFA market to try and find an analytically sound, cost-effective forward who could provide some physicality. One player stood out in particular as an option who checks all of those boxes.

Assuming Adams lets all of the Sabres’ pending-UFA forwards to hit the open market, addressing all of the remaining gaps via trade will likely be impossible. At 29 years old, veteran winger Kyle Clifford is set to hit the open market (if he is not re-signed by the Toronto Maple Leafs, of course). After nearly nine years as a member of the Los Angeles Kings organization, he was dealt to Toronto as a presumed rental piece on February 5.

A “bottom-nine” asset who can capably move up and down the lineup as needed, Clifford would be an extremely cost-efficient option to address an area of need. According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projection tool (which has a track record of being quite accurate), he is expected to command something in the realm of two-years at $1.729 million AAV.

Clifford has consistently posted positive impact metrics on a struggling Los Angeles squad. In 2019-20, his relative xG percentage of 3.43 ranked sixth among Kings forwards. The same goes for his GAR mark of 3.2. Generally speaking, those metrics are quite consistent with what he has produced since 2012-13.

The big selling point here is consistency (as well as versatility, which we’ll touch on in a moment). Despite the fact that Los Angeles has plummeted since their last playoff appearance in 2017-18, Clifford’s impacts in that span (and even prior to it) have varied only slightly. This indicates that his early career success was not necessarily predicated on the fact that the Kings were a very deep and talented team.

Another encouraging aspect of his game is his ability to annually replicate impact scores in a variety of different deployments. During his nine full seasons with the Kings, Clifford’s OZS rate has ranged anywhere from 47.78, to 68.09. The biggest year-over-year delta took place from 2016-17 to 2017-18 where his individual OZS rate dropped by almost 18-percent. His xG rate did take a modest hit as a result that season, but his overall on-ice impact remained positive.

Diving a little deeper into his transition metrics, there are some weak points in his game. Due to his poor zone-exit, and zone-entry marks, it makes sense that the Kings typically gave him a heavier offensive zone-start rate. While he is a capable defensive forward, he does very little to aid his team in transition.

So, depending on how the Sabres would theoretically intend to use him, he might need solid puck-movers on his line in order to get the most out of him. That’s not to say that he’s linemate-dependent, but if we’re talking about maximizing assets, that seems to be the type of player(s) he’d work best with.

While Clifford’s base statistical output of 17 points in 69 games this season doesn’t jump off the page, the Kings were 12-percent more effective in the offensive-zone when he was on the ice (represented by an xG increase of .33).

This is where the physicality aspect plays a role. As indicated on the above heatmap, a lot of that offensive production came right in front of the net. The “clearing a path” argument is often flawed when it comes to determining the value of a given player’s physical presence, but in this case, it probably has some merit. He isn’t exactly a “creator of offense”, but at 6-foot-2, 211-pounds he certainly doesn’t have trouble moving opposing bodies around to help accommodate opportunities-for.

Speaking further toward his overall versatility, a similar trend seems to take place on the defensive side of the ice. With Clifford deployed, the Kings experienced an eight-percent reduction in their opponent’s xG rate. Converse to what we saw on offense, there appears to be a complete lack of concentrated opportunities allowed in deep. This fortifies the legitimacy of his perennially strong defensive metrics, despite shortcomings in transition.

As previously mentioned, Clifford represents the best of both worlds. His on-ice impact is both consistent and significant, which should be of interest to the analytics staff. As a seasoned veteran with size and strength, his presence should both appease the coaching staff, and provide stability within what could be a relatively young forward group next season.

On paper, Buffalo should be interested in the aforementioned contract to obtain Clifford but said interest might not be mutual. A veteran player approaching 30 might be more apt to sign onto an immediately competitive squad. His agent, Todd Reynolds has also recently expressed interest in re-signing with the Maple Leafs.

If that’s the case, the Sabres might have to pay a little bit more in order to persuade him to sign. Even if his demand eclipses $2 million AAV for two years, Adams would be wise to pull the trigger. The value is there, and it’s exactly the type of low-risk deal that could help Buffalo add a reliable asset to a thin forward group.

RAPM Chart courtesy of Evolving Hockey

xG Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Shot Heatmap courtesy of Hockeyviz