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Sabres penalty kill remains at the top of the NHL

The power play is the special teams unit that receives a lot of the focus for the Buffalo Sabres. Understandably, of course, because of how poor it has looked for the better part of two years now. The penalty kill, however, finished last season 23rd in the league.

It was a group that needed to rebound just as much as the power play. To the credit of Marty Wilford and Lindy Ruff, they have done so through a quarter of the season. The Sabres remain at the top of the NHL with an 87.7% kill rate.

That special teams unit has played a key part in this club remaining in the race as they’ve gone through their injury issues.

I wanted to wait until we made it through at least the quarter mark before diving into what is different about this season. Admittedly, I’ve been waiting for the bottom to fall out, but it hasn’t. If anything, I feel the penalty kill is getting better as they go along.

Goaltending

The most obvious difference at the top of the list is the goaltending the Sabres are receiving on the penalty kill. Last season, they were 27th in save percentage while shorthanded. This year, they’ve been first in save percentage while shorthanded from opening night.

It’s not just one goaltender leading the way. All three Sabres goalies are in the top 10 in save percentage on the penalty kill this season. When you account for the fact that the Sabres have a higher expected goals against rate, shot attempts against, unblocked shot attempts, and shots on goal than last season. It made me start to dig into the reasons we’re seeing better results with all of those data points worse.

Shooting and Shot Blocking

My observation was that the Sabres are doing a better job of protecting the middle of the ice and preventing cross-ice passes on the penalty kill. They’re pushing the opponent to the outside and attacking players aggressively on the walls to force the puck further away from the net.

The clip above against the Carolina Hurricanes is a good example of what I’m referencing. You’ll see Beck Malenstyn and Zach Benson aggressively attack the players on the wall to force the puck to another area on the ice. Either below the net or back out high. Once they do that, they then collapse back to the slot to protect from cross-ice passes or a player finding a soft spot.

They’re unbothered by the player in front of the net because they know as a unit they’ll collapse to the net to prevent a quality rebound attempt in what will likely be a 2v1 or 3v1 situation at the goal mouth. Depending on the team, the approach will change a little, but this has been a common practice from my observations. They’re moving better as a four-man group and with a purpose.

This has worked in forcing shots from further out, which have a lower probability of scoring. As of now, they have the 10th-highest average shot distance against on the penalty kill. During the 2024-25 season, they ranked 19th, which meant they allowed more shot attempts closer to the net.

The benefit of pushing more shots from the outside and closing down lanes aggressively is that they’ve been able to block more shots. As I mentioned, they’re allowing more shot attempts, but they’re blocking 26% of them. That’s the eighth-best rate in the NHL this season. Last year, they were 21st in that category.

I did find it interesting that they’re allowing a higher rate of rebound attempts per shot on goal, according to Natural Stat Trick. They’re at a 20% rebound per shot rate this season, which is higher than their league-low 13% last season.

There are two ways to look at this. One is that goaltenders are making the first more often, which is resulting in rebounds. That’s good if the Sabres can collapse to limit the quality of those opportunities, and easier for goaltenders if they know where shots are going to come from.

The other is that, as a result of shots coming from a distance with traffic, it is harder for a goaltender to avoid rebounds. This can be managed if it’s part of the plan, and the defense can clear the puck when it’s free. I feel as though they’ve done a good job with that so far.

I’ve noticed that the Sabres continue to be a team that isn’t aggressive in shutting down entries. The microstats data is too small at this point to back that up with numbers. It seems they prefer to allow getting into their structure in the zone and not risk getting out of position meeting teams at the blue line.

Key Players

The personnel deserve credit for the improvement as well. Beck Malenstyn has been a shot-blocking machine for the Sabres. He ranks ninth in the league among all forwards with at least 10 minutes on the penalty kill. His speed and physicality on the walls have forced opponents to speed up their decision-making.

Conor Timmins and Mattias Samuelsson are two other players who have stood out. Timmins is 14th among all defensemen in shot blocking, and Samuelsson is 28th. They’ve done a good job clearing out around the net on rebounds.

Evolving Hockey grades Timmins out rather poorly in their goals above replacement model while shorthanded, but I disagree with what I’ve seen in the game. Most public models don’t love the Sabres’ penalty kill over. I understand because of the higher expected goals against numbers, but what they’re doing is effective. They’ve also started to see the xGA/60 number come down over the last few weeks.

It shouldn’t be forgotten that the speed and offensive upside of players on the penalty kill units make the Sabres a threat in that regard as well. Alex Tuch was one of the top players in the league last season in shorthanded goals. Ryan McLeod is 11th among all forwards in goals per hour on the penalty kill this year.

If the Sabres can get their power play to catch up, this can be a playoff profile. The penalty kill and 5 on 5 game looks good enough to compete. Of course, they have to stay healthy too.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images

One thought on “Sabres penalty kill remains at the top of the NHL

  1. It’s interesting that the models are grading out poorly in xga. Seems the shots in close on the PK tend to be weaker shots with sticks or bodies in the way. I’m not sure xg models can accurately rate shots from close in locations like that, it’s impossible to account for variables. End of the day, they get the puck really, really fast, and rotate back into their formation flawlessly.

    Beck’s gap control and defensive positioning is crazy good, and it’s very impressive how quickly he can stop from full speed on a dime at the perfect location to close out lanes. I think his hockey iq is off the charts, and if he had even decent hands he’d be a unicorn. I high-key hope the Sabres give him another contract as the 12/13F. He’s one of those “gives you different looks” guys where the look he gives you is actually super useful.

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