The 2023 NHL draft is going to have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. A player widely considered a top-end prospect, who could’ve gone first overall in many of the past drafts will end up falling down the draft board for reasons that have nothing to do with ability nor with glaring character issues.

Two years ago the 2023 draft hype began during the 2021 IIHF u18 World Championships. The Bedard vs. Michkov debate was alive and well, and while Bedard opened everyone’s eyes that a 15-year-old was Canada’s best player that year; Matvei Michkov put on an all-time scoring run with 12 goals in just 7 games to lead Russia. His 12 goals were 6 more than countrymen Ivan Miroshnichenko (drafted in the first round by Washington last year) and he led the tournament in both goals and in points (Bedard had 14).

The geopolitical conflict has left Michkov without an international stage to perform on since that time. Added to that was his lackluster start to begin this year where a lot of people, myself included, were beginning to question just how projectable Michkov’s game was to the NHL. A loan to HK Sochi in the KHL mid-year saw Michkov blossom, and he finished the year as the all-time leading scorer in points per game as a draft-eligible in KHL history. Playing twelve fewer games he was still just four points from the all-time leader for draft-eligible players in regards to overall points total. More than Tarasenko. More than Panarin.

So why will Matvei Michkov tumble down draft boards? The most obvious reason is his timeline to the NHL. Michkov signed a three-year extension that will keep him in Russia through the 2025-26 season. Job security for a GM is never guaranteed, and many will be reticent to select a player who is under contract for the next three seasons and will be unable to help the team during that time. The secondary reason, if I were a GM, is that this draft is deep. On my own draft board, there are definite tiers of talent, but I would say that there are almost 50 players in this draft who could hit pretty big if everything goes right. The name of the game for any draft is risk assessment. While it’s fun as a fan to armchair GM and always swing for the fences; it’s not always the best team-building philosophy. What GM will have the job security, prospect depth, and a roster that doesn’t need to be infused right away with a lottery-selected talent player in the next 1-3 years?

The answer, to me, is the Buffalo Sabres.

Sabres Free Agents

I’m letting Jost, Girgensons, Hinostroza, and Clague walk into the free agency from the NHL club. While Girgensons hurts the most for sentimental reasons; the reality is that the Sabres have 11 forwards signed for next season and I would be shocked if Juri Kulich isn’t on the NHL roster in 2023-24 as well.

In Rochester, I’m re-signing Rousek, Weissbach, and Sean Malone to an AHL deal. As for the defensemen, I’ll also re-sign Jeremy Davies to an AHL deal as well. I will let Murray, Pekar, Cecconi, and Strand go into free agency. I’ll re-sign Subban and let Houser go.

Before the Draft Trades

Buffalo Trades: Victor Olofsson (50% retained), and the 13th overall pick

Vancouver Trades: Tyler Myers, and the 11th overall pick

Going to give credit to Kevin (@ntrider825 on Twitter) for this one as I have been spitballing how to get a pick closer to the 7-9 range that wouldn’t require giving up a foundational piece to move up. Historically, there isn’t a precedent in the NHL draft in recent times for teams looking to move significantly in the draft. The only times a team has moved up into that range has been when teams are looking to sell off assets to rebuild with examples like the DeBrincat trade to Ottawa trade last year or the Corey Schneider trade in 2013.

Why does Vancouver make this trade? For one, Vancouver gets out of the last year of Myers’ $6 million contract, and with Olofsson being 50% retained it creates 3.625 million in cap space for Vancouver. Cap relief should be a huge concern for Vancouver, and getting out from under Myers’ contract while not having to give up significant assets should be seen as a huge win for them. Dropping down two spots in this range of the 2023 draft shouldn’t be seen as an obstacle. From picks 6 through 20 there is a large tier of players of the same caliber.

The Sabres have the luxury to take on the cap hit, and while Myers has struggled recently, playing alongside Owen Power or anchoring the bottom pair could be a step up for Buffalo compared to their lackluster bottom pairing from the 2022-23 season.

Draft Day

First, a trade.

Buffalo Trades: Noah Ostlund, UPL, 11th overall, unprotected 2024 1st, and a 2025 2nd

Philadelphia Trades: Carter Hart and the 7th Overall Pick

This one is going to hurt at first, but sometimes it’s better to look at roster construction rather than the simple “I don’t want to give up that much” mindset.

I don’t know where Noah Ostlund fits into the future of the Buffalo Sabres. I love the player. He was one of my favorite players in the 2022 draft. His slight frame, much like Isak Rosen, always meant he had a longer pathway to North American hockey than most lottery picks. However, the Sabres have Dylan Cozens and Tage Thompson locked up down the middle for the next seven years. While a transition to the wing isn’t out of the question for Ostlund; there is no denying that it’s easier to find wingers in the NHL draft than it is to find centers.

UPL has always been the odd man out since the trade for Devon Levi. His path to a starting goaltending gig hit a significant obstacle when Levi joined the team, and even if he ends up being better than Levi, waiting and seeing if either of them will ascend to that level of goaltending doesn’t make sense when the core of this team is just hitting their prime.

Danny Briere picked up a second first-round pick already from the Kings, and I expect the rebuild is on in Philadelphia. He has the job security of a new GM leading a rebuild, but I don’t think he would want to wait until his fourth season to see Michkov hit the ice. Carter Hart’s name has been thrown around in the rumor mill since the Provorov trade, and he’s able to land a lottery-selected center, a young NHL goalie, and an additional first-round pick. If he’s not willing to pick Michkov then this should be a very appealing trade for the Flyers.

The reality is that Michkov is worth the swing. Players like this don’t fall the draft board, and it’s nearly impossible to trade up into the top end of the draft without severely overpaying and having your NHL team take a step backward. Being able to acquire Hart and a talent like Michkov without sacrificing the short-term and improving the long-term outlook of the Sabres is a swing I’m desperately hoping they make.

Buffalo selects at 7th overall: Matvei Michkov, RW, KHL

Buffalo selects at 39th overall: Gracyn Sawchyn, C/RW, WHL

Buffalo selects at 45th overall: Beau Akey, RHD, OHL

Sawchyn is a player who I’ve been pounding on the table for all year to be ranked as a top 20 player and who consistently is being left out of the first round of the mock drafts leading up to the draft. His skating needs an extra step, but there are very few players in this draft who have his passing creativity, his ability to always put the puck into dangerous areas, and his non-stop motor that he is always in the think of things on the ice. He fits Kevyn Adams’ archetype of a player that the Sabres covet. I’d be sprinting to the podium if he’s available at 39.

At 45 I’m taking a shot on one of my favorite draft prospects in this class that I’m much higher on than consensus in Beau Akey. He’s gaining traction since EP put out their draft guide and highlighted his one-on-one rush defense, but his skill and mobility does pop off the screen. As I said in the rankings post: he’s the only player I tracked this year to attempt more than 35 passes in a game and complete 90% of them. His offensive game took a backseat once Brent Clarke came to the team, but he’s got a lot of runway with his tools and mobility.

Buffalo Trades: Henri Jokiharju (50% retained)

Minnesota Trades: Pick 64 in the 2023 draft

Buffalo Selects: Jacob Fowler, G, USHL

I’m just not the biggest Jokiharju fan, and keeping him on the roster after acquiring Tyler Myers creates a logjam at the defensive position. Minnesota has over 14 million in dead cap space for the next few years and is losing Matt Dumba to UFA most likely. Getting a cost-controlled, cheap RHD to plug in while they maneuver around the Parise/Suter buyouts while giving up the second of their 2nd round picks (essentially a third-rounder) makes a lot of sense for them.

Topias Leinonen has struggled in his D+1 and we’ve just lost UPL and Portillo within a calendar year. Starting to rebuild the goalie pipeline with an NCAA-bound goalie who just put up a .952 SV% in the Clark Cup playoffs seems like a home run. He’s going to Boston College (alongside the top line of the NTDP: Perreault/Smith/Leonard) and sported above a .920 SV% in the USHL which is no easy feat. Watching Youngstown at the beginning of the season they were bleeding high-danger shot attempts and Fowler was the main reason they were able to play such a high-event style of hockey.

I’ll save the rest of the picks for my Sabres Draft Guide post.

The Offseason

Buffalo Trades: Jacob Bryson

Seattle Trades: 2024 3rd (Toronto)

No one loves the cowboy hockey that Bryson plays more than I do. However, I have to open up roster spots for a UFA signing and I also don’t want to block Ryan Johnson from getting NHL games when an injury comes to the lineup. Seattle could use a cheap addition to their defensive unit.

Buffalo Signs: RHD Kevin Shattenkirk to a two-year, $4 million AAV contract

The defensive side of the puck outside of Power and Dahlin needs to be re-tooled. My main target this offseason would be Shattenkirk who brings both positive defensive analytics as well as a veteran presence into the room that could help the maturation of the young defensive core.

Evolving Hockey has his contract projection at $3.5 million AAV for two years and I provide a slight overpay to bring him over to Buffalo to anchor the top four and to sit alongside Power on the second pair.

Buffalo Signs: Alexander Kerfoot to a four-year, $3.7 million AAV contract

The Sabres were one of the most fun offensive teams in recent memory in the NHL. Unfortunately, they were also a high-event team that bled dangerous chances and whose top six aren’t known for their defensive prowess. For the Sabres to keep their style of play and to make the next leap they’ll need a few forwards who can play up in the lineup as needed but who also can shut down other teams’ top lines while being a positive in transition. That’s where Kerfoot comes in.

While Pierre Engvall was my dream going into the offseason, it seems as if the Islanders have made it a priority to bring Engvall back after their mid-season trade to acquire him. However, I don’t think Toronto will be running back their current roster and Kerfoot would be a challenge for them to fit on their roster given their current cap situation.

Kerfoot provides a much-needed defensive presence to the forward group while also being able to contribute 25-35 points a season. The 28-year-old comes in on a midrange contract and will most likely be bumped to the fourth line by the time the contract ends.

The Final Product

The cap space dwindles to ~4.9 million dollars after you account for the contract retentions of Olofsson and Jokiharju. I have Matthew Savoie as a scratch to start the season. Given that he’s not eligible to go to the AHL I think he’ll start up with the big club to begin the year and play his 9-game stint with maybe a conditioning stint to Rochester before being loaned to Team Canada for the World Juniors. After the World Juniors, depending on how the season goes for him and injuries to the lineup, we could see him go back to Winnipeg for the rest of the WHL season or stay with Buffalo for the duration. When he does get into the lineup I’d like to see him give Okoposo breaks on back-to-backs or short rest scenarios and see what a line of Greenway/Krebs/Savoie could do.

This leaves Buffalo with ~47 million dollars committed to players for the 2024-25 season with Dahlin, Power, Mittelstadt, Krebs, and Hart’s contract to negotiate in next year’s offseason. It gives us yearly “Michkov Watches” to see if SKA is going to terminate his contract early and let him come over, and also hopefully provides us with some semblance of hope that our goalie situation might be fixed since Linus Ullmark’s departure.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Cap Friendly

Photo Credit: Getty Images