Team Trade Breakdown | Sabres Can Take Advantage of Canucks Cap Situation

The Vancouver Canucks are at something of an organizational crossroads. After barely missing the playoffs in 2021-22, the team took a considerable step back this season. In his first full campaign as general manager, Patrik Allvin’s club fell well short of expectations.

Because Allvin decided to try and stick with the existing core in his first season, it will be interesting to see what he does this summer. On top of a much-needed shakeup in personnel, the Canucks have almost no salary cap flexibility heading into the summer. To begin the new league year, Allvin’s squad is more than a half-million dollars over the salary cap according to CapFriendly.

Even if the front office opts for more of a “retool” rather than a full-blown rebuild, Vancouver will need to be active in shedding salary regardless. The Buffalo Sabres are a team with a lot of cap room at their disposal and could be in a position to take advantage of the Canucks’ current predicament.

Canucks Offseason Outlook

2023-24 Projected Cap Space (per CapFriendly): -$668,000

Key Restricted Free Agents: Vitali Kravstov, Ethan Bear, and Travis Dermott

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Kyle Burroughs, Collin Delia

Conor Garland | RW | Age 27 | Three years, $4.95 million AAV

If the Canucks decide to retool, I would think Garland is a player they would hang on to. His production is consistent, and his salary is manageable. That being said, if they have trouble moving some of their more expensive and less useful assets, perhaps the 27-year-old can be made available for the right price.

In his time spent between two mediocre organizations (to put it kindly) over the past three seasons, Garland’s impacts on both offense and defense have been fantastic. The Sabres need a middle-six asset with two-way acumen, and he certainly fits the bill.

Going a step further, Garland’s offensive production has historically come on the counter-rush rather than a traditional offensive cycle. So, in terms of skillset fit, it lends to reason that he’d assimilate nicely in Buffalo. On paper, you would be hard-pressed to find a conceivably available forward who checks more boxes for what Kevyn Adams’ group is missing.

Brock Boeser | RW | Age 26 | Two years, $6.65 million AAV

In the interest of clarity, I’ll start by saying that I have no interest in this player, and I feel that he possesses the exact opposite skillset of what Buffalo should be looking for upfront. If it wasn’t for the rumblings regarding the Sabres’ interest in Boeser early last season, I probably would have left him off the list completely.

Outside of his box score numbers, there just isn’t much to like about the player. Sure, he’s got speed and flashes of offensive skill, but it’s mostly window dressing. Boeser has been a defensive black hole his entire career, and his finishing impacts are abysmal. He also doesn’t draw penalties, and his power-play impacts are mediocre at best.

Earlier this season on the Expected Buffalo Podcast, we referred to him as a rich man’s Casey Mittelstadt. In retrospect, that’s probably generous, considering that Mittelstadt is likely the better player. At the risk of sounding obtuse, Boeser is name recognition at this point and nothing more.

Nils Hoglander | LW | Age 22 | RFA (not arbitration-eligible)

If the Sabres were in a position where depth forwards were more of a priority, I’d be all about this reclamation project. Following an outstanding 56-game sample in his first season with the Canucks, Hoglander has experienced a lot of ups and downs in spot duty.

By my estimation, Hoglander’s recent downward trajectory has more to do with the Canucks’ system than the player himself. For the last few years, Vancouver has been one of the least effective teams at generating shots off the rush according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data. As a transition maven, that could explain why Hoglander has struggled to find his footing in that system.

There are still concerns about his finishing impact and general struggles as an effective passer in the offensive zone, but he’s a player worth taking a flyer on if the Canucks aren’t interested in an extension and his rights can be acquired for cheap.

Thatcher Demko | G | Age 27 | Three years, $5 million AAV

Last, but not least, is the most polarizing player to consider on the Canucks roster. On one hand, perhaps it’s the perfect time to take a swing at a player like Demko. He’s coming off an injury-riddled year where he posted down (albeit still good) underlying numbers.

This past season, the 27-year-old saw his GSAx rate plummet by over eight goals from the year prior. Again, he was coming off an injury and improved significantly down the stretch, but it’s not as though the Canucks would be “selling high” if they chose to shop him this summer.

He also has a very manageable contract, and given his name recognition and early-career success, Vancouver’s asking price could be too high to justify the risk. Demko ranked ninth among all NHL netminders in GSAx rate from 2019-2022, but it remains to be seen whether he can regain that level of success.

A Fun Idea and Some Other Thoughts

The Canucks currently hold the 11th overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. As we all know, the Sabres sit two slots behind them at 13th overall. If a player the Sabres covet (let’s say Matvei Michkov for example) falls outside the top 10, Vancouver is a perfect trade partner.

One idea (the inspiration for which I’ll credit to our friend Kevin, AKA Ntrider825 on Twitter), would involve Hoglander and a cap dump. Specifically, former Sabre Tyler Myers would make a good bit of sense in this scenario.

If Allvin can be convinced to trade back two spaces in exchange for Myers at full salary and Hoglander (since Myers alone would be way too much of a favor to Vancouver), it’s a deal that would make too much sense for the Sabres. Not only would they be able to select a player they want at that 11^th spot, but they’d gain themselves a lottery ticket young forward for virtually nothing.

Even if you’re concerned about Myers taking up a roster spot, a buyout is a viable option. Sure, that route would cost the Sabres $5.33 million in dead cap for 2023-24, but the following year (the final year of said buyout) would carry a cap penalty of just $333,334 according to CapFriendly.

I’d probably prefer to just hold onto Myers for a year to serve as a reserve defenseman, but it doesn’t matter. Buffalo isn’t going to get anywhere close to the cap ceiling this summer, and the extra money on the books won’t be restrictive either way.

I’m not saying I’m married to this idea by any stretch, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t find it intriguing.

Lastly, I want to address the omission of pending RFA Ethan Bear from this list. Given the fact that the two sides seem mutually interested in a contract extension, I’m frankly tired of suggesting Bear as an option every summer.

For that reason, I’m going to let that idea die a timely death and just move on. He’s a great player who I feel would fit perfectly in Don Granato’s system, but the justification just feels overly regurgitated at this point.